Harvest 2020: Good rain puts Victoria, NSW in the box seat

While recent cooler and wet conditions have caused havoc for hay producers, grain growers across Victoria and southern NSW are in the box seat heading into the season’s “money month”.

MULTI-million-dollar grain rain has given farmer confidence a last-minute boost as harvesters prepare to roll across southeast Australia.

While recent cooler and wet conditions have caused havoc for hay producers, with many crops destroyed by moisture or still curing on the ground several weeks after being cut, grain growers across most parts of Victoria and southern NSW are firmly in the box seat heading into the season’s “money month”.

Harvest has already kicked off in the Mallee with farmers in other northern areas of the state expected to make the most of this week’s forecast warmer, drier conditions to get their programs underway. Some farmers — particularly those in southern NSW — have described their crops this year as the best ever.

Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said while there were significant amounts of hay that had been downgraded or ruined by the recent rain this had been offset “by the increase in quality and quantity of grain”.

“The rain we had probably four weeks ago they said was a $100 million rain,” Mr Jochinke said. “That is probably spot on and what we are getting now is just adding to that.”

MORE: VICTORIA IN CROPS BOX SEAT

Analyst Andrew Whitelaw, from Thomas Elder Markets, said 2020 was “looking like an almost perfect year” for southern crops. “Overwhelmingly it is pretty God-damn good,” Mr Whitelaw said.

In the Millewa district of northwest Victoria, which was savaged by record drought last year, farmer Ian Arney described the turnaround in seasons as “phenomenal” while southern NSW farmer Andrew Bouffler said his cereal crops “were the best in my farming career if we can get them off (without weather-related issues)”.

October was wetter-than-average across the board, with all 33 weather stations in Victoria and southern NSW routinely monitored by The Weekly Times exceeding their long-term average totals.

Several centres recorded more than twice their normal October totals including Swan Hill (54mm), Nhill (58mm), Narrandera (93mm), Balranald (63mm), Mortlake (102mm), Mildura (59mm), Hay (70mm) and Ararat (110mm).

The biggest falls in the past week were in southern NSW, with Young recording 86mm for the seven days to 9am yesterday followed by Parkes (69mm), West Wyalong (57mm), Grenfell (56mm), Ardlethan (53mm), Coleambally (45mm) and Urana (40mm).

East of Urana at Lockhart, Mr Bouffler said he recorded more than 70mm of rain during October which was “unbelievable” and “perfect” for his wheat and barley crops.

“There is no moisture limitation for yield potential,” he said. “The downside is that the canola is ready for windrowing and the paddocks are hard to get on (due to the wet conditions). We’ve got ours done but a few guys are getting in planes to desiccate crops.”

Mr Bouffler said he was amazed at how the “pendulum had well and truly swung” from a horror year in NSW last year to a “ridiculously wet” 2020.

“The whole concept of the pendulum is that it moves from one to the other but it goes through the average, but that hasn’t happened this time,” he said.

“They forecast 30mm on the weekend and we only got 4mm and the general conversation is ‘how lucky are we that we missed the rain’. You can’t imagine having a conversation like that given the years of drought we’ve seen.”

There was also handy rain in the Mallee in the past week, with Murrayville recording 16mm, Walpeup 14mm and Mildura 10mm while the best falls in the Wimmera were 15mm at Jeparit, 12mm at Nhill and 10mm at Dimboola.

Mr Arney, from Werrimull west of Mildura, said this season was “such a huge contrast to the past two years” of drought in far northwest Victoria.

“I didn’t end up harvesting a thing last year but this year we are looking at above-average yields,” he said. “There will be some crops here in the district – especially barley crops – that will be pushing 3-3.5 tonnes/ha.”

Grain Growers Limited chairman Brett Hosking, from Oakvale near Quambatook, said while grain prices were softer than last year they had held up surprisingly well, particularly given China’s decision in May to slap an 80 per cent tariff on Australian barley over allegations of dumping.

“We’ve had the challenges with barley which has carved an easy $50 a tonne off the price but that being said we are still looking at prices over $200 a tonne up country, which is promising,” he said.

“Wheat is performing really strongly at the moment – there seems to be a lot less wheat in the world than what people thought there was. And canola is also quite strong.”

Mr Whitelaw said prices had come back a little bit in the past fortnight but were still at levels “we haven’t really had during periods of good conditions”. “APW (wheat) has really stabilised at around about that $320 a tonne mark,” he said. “To put it in perspective it was $278 in August for the coming harvest.”

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