Australia’s chart-topping agricultural emissions

Australia has the dubious honour of punching well above its weight when it comes to global agricultural emissions. A Weekly Times analysis reveals just where we fit on the world stage.

Methane emissions from livestock make up the vast majority of agricultural emissions globally.

AUSTRALIA is producing three times more agricultural emissions per capita than some of its major trade competitors – including the biggest beef exporter in the world.

And the nation has the dubious honour of being among the top 10 total agricultural emitters globally, an analysis by TheWeekly Times shows.

It’s prompted warnings Australia’s ag exports are particularly vulnerable as major economies around the world ramp up their climate action, and potentially look to penalise countries deemed not to be doing enough to reduce emissions.

“If you take it on a per capita basis, we don’t look good,” Melbourne University sustainable agriculture professor Richard Eckard said, noting the measure was significant given up to 70 per cent of Australia’s produce was exported.

“Multinationals are all setting targets in line with the Paris agreements and why wouldn’t they – who would put all those exports at risk?”

A renewed debate on climate action has been underway, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison inching toward setting an emissions target of net-zero by 2050 – sparking calls from some Nationals, including Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, for agriculture to be “carved out” from any target.

Agriculture accounts for 14 per cent of Australia’s emissions inventory, and primarily includes methane and nitrous oxide.

On the world stage, Australia seems a minor player when considering its contribution to total global emissions (about 1 per cent) – but punches well above its weight when it comes to agricultural emissions.

PDF: TOP AG EMITTERS PER CAPITA IN THE G20

The international data (compiled using the most recent available Climate Analysis Indicators Tool figures and excluding land use changes) shows Australia’s emissions per capita top the list of the world’s 20 major economies for the past 15 years. It remains well above the largest beef exporter globally, Brazil, even as it fluctuates through the millennium drought.

Outside the G20, Australia ranks fourth on a per capita basis, behind Mongolia, New Zealand and Uruguay — all countries where agriculture accounts for the bulk of their emissions, and none of which make it into the top 10 of total agricultural emissions.

On that scale, Australia ranks eighth next to some of our biggest trading partners and competitors including China, Brazil, the United States, the European Union, and Indonesia.

Of those top emitters, half have net-zero targets locked in; meanwhile the EU, US and other major trading partners such as Japan are among those considering introducing carbon tariffs on products from countries seen as not doing enough to reduce emissions. 

PDF: TOP AG EMITTERS GLOBALLY

Farmers for Climate Action policy adviser and Melbourne University fellow Corey Watts said the data showed how important agriculture was to Australia’s economy and emissions profile.

“You could look at (the top 10) and say ‘it’s only 2.8 per cent’, but that’s three times our contribution to total global emissions,” he said.

“So we have a relatively small population but we are churning out a lot of pollution, particularly compared to other major agricultural exporters, especially livestock exporters.

“We’re facing a global marketplace and policy environment increasingly shaped by carbon risks and opportunities … and this tells us Australia is particularly exposed.”

WHAT ACTION SHOULD AUSTRALIA TAKE?

The Government appears to be heading toward an unlegislated net-zero target, and agriculture is unlikely to be excluded, with Agriculture Minister David Littleproud telling The Weekly Times this week the Government “wants agriculture to be part of the solution”.

Prof Eckard – who has acted as a science adviser to the Australian, New Zealand and UK governments – said governments were largely “irrelevant” to the conversation around targets, given industries and supply chains were already acting: the red meat industry is already aiming for carbon neutrality by 2030, and the National Farmers’ Federation backs a 2050 target.

Prof Eckard believed suppliers and exporters would end up proving their own emissions credentials in the market, such as West Australian canola growers getting priority access to the EU for GM-free low-emission canola, or Heineken seeking out carbon-neutral supplies of malting barley.

“Politicians are running around talking about targets when that train left the station years ago,” Prof Eckard said.

“They just need to put the money into research so farmers can respond when the time is right for them to respond.”

Farmers for Climate Action still wants to see the Government set a target for accountability, but notes Australia’s ag emissions rankings could in fact be an opportunity to lead the world.

“If our producers are the ones dropping emissions, if we can do that then the world goes, ‘Blimey, it can be done’,” Mr Watts said, noting the sector was already a world leader in ag production efficiency.

“A 2050 target gives us focus, it gives the sector and scientists focus, and really importantly it makes political and business leaders accountable.

“It allows agriculture to be at the table and say ‘if you want to do this, we need help’.”

WHAT ABOUT LAND USE CHANGES AND SOIL CARBON?

The data above is calculated without including land use changes and forestry, as these emissions are not classified as agricultural under any of the reporting frameworks.

Taking that sector into account using the data analysis, however, shifts Australia down to ninth place among the G20, and out of the top 10 globally in favour of several developing countries.

A report by ABARES last year into global responses to climate change showed land use emissions in Australia have declined significantly in the past 30 years, largely due to reduced landclearing practices.

Ag emissions, however, were found to be “relatively static”, primarily shifting with changes in livestock numbers or farm production.

Farmers have argued their ability to manage the land and sequester carbon in soils should be taken into account and rewarded, as part of ag’s role in reducing emissions.

Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor is exploring new methods of accounting for soil carbon and carbon capture storage, amid estimates widespread adoption of farming friendly practices could sequester up to 374 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents a year, which could counter up to 70 per cent of Australia’s total current emissions annually.

But Prof Eckard said the land sector should stop trading away its carbon offsets.

“For the land sector to be carbon-neutral in its own right, it needs to own its offsets,” he said.

“Producing food is still going to have some emissions, agriculture needs those offsets for itself – let each sector take care of itself.”