ASF outbreak could cost billions
The deadly African Swine Fever is hovering in the region, with ten countries reporting occurrences of the deadly disease since 2020.
Biosecurity officials are on high alert as the deadly and highly infectious African Swine Fever circles the region, with new research estimating a domestic outbreak could cost the Australian economy up to $2.5 billion.
ASF, an incurable viral disease with no effective vaccine, has wiped-out pig populations in recent years in Russia, China, Asia and Europe and destroyed farmers’ livelihoods.
The first ASF Oceania outbreak was recorded in late 2019 in Timor-Leste, followed by Papua New Guinea in March 2020. By July 2021, it had extended its reach to the Americas for the first time in 40 years, and Thailand and Nepal last year for the first time.
ABARES has estimated an ASF endemic outbreak would cost the nation between $400 million and $2.5 billion, and have a lingering impact on domestic pig production.
In a paper released last week, it reported that an endemic outbreak locally would also shut off export markets and spill over into feral populations, necessitating expensive control measures.
It predicted a small-scale outbreak in domestic pigs followed by eradication of the disease would cost $117 million to $263 million.
And a small-scale outbreak in feral pigs followed by eradication of the disease would cost $101 million to $127 million.
The agency also warned of dire long-term impacts should eradication prove economically or technically unfeasible.
“The disease will progress rapidly in infected pigs and mortality is close to 100 per cent,” the report said.
“Contaminated meat, feed, equipment, clothing, and infected carcasses pose a high risk for disease transmission.”
Australia’s biosecurity system is under siege with a growing frequency and multiplicity of biosecurity threats over recent months, including foot and mouth and lumpy skin disease and a significant incursion of Japanese encephalitis.
Agriculture Minister Murray Watt admitted that “we have started to see some cracks in our national biosecurity wall” with factors such as climate change and increasing trade and travel opening new pathways for exotic pests and diseases and illegal plants and animals.
“African Swine Fever is sweeping the world,” he said.
However, variants are showing less obvious signs of the disease which increases the likelihood of it going undetected and uncontrolled.
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