‘Alarming’: Bureau confirms La Nina as new forecast warns of hotter, drier Aussie summer
Australia is heading into a volatile summer, with the Bureau of Meteorology confirming a La Nina and warning of hotter, drier months ahead.
Australians have been told to brace for another season of dangerous weather, with the Bureau of Meteorology confirming a La Nina is now underway.
The Bureau’s 2025–26 outlook, released last week, shows below-average rainfall is likely for parts of Western Australia and inland areas of the east, while much of the east coast and southern Australia currently show “near-equal chances” of wetter or drier conditions.
There is an increased chance of unusually hot daytime and overnight temperatures across large areas of Queensland, the north-west, Tasmania and the south-east, with the Indian Ocean Dipole expected to return to neutral in December.
Summer days and nights are also likely to be warmer than average across most of the country.
The update comes as Australia enters its peak stretch for severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, flooding, heatwaves and bushfires, a period that runs from October to April.
Hot Summer Ahead
The new seasonal forecast highlights hot, dry conditions with temperatures higher than average between December and February, lower rainfall across inland Queensland and NSW, and increased fire danger for parts of Victoria, Western Australia, and central northern NSW.
“As we approach summer, the days and nights are getting warmer and heatwaves can become more frequent,” senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said.
“Summer is the peak season for bushfires across much of southern Australia.”
Destructive storms
The heat isn’t only bringing an increased risk of bushfires but also plenty of thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
“During this time of year, we see that enhanced instability due to sort of cooler upper-level air masses and warmer at the surface,” senior climatologist Felicity Gamble told NewsWire.
“We see that great sort of overturning of the atmosphere and that leads to increased instability and supports the development of these severe thunderstorms.”
Combined with warmer water temperatures off the Queensland coast that are 1C to 2C warmer than average, there is a higher chance that storms and tropical cyclones will develop.
Tropical cyclones typically develop between November and April, though cyclones usually don’t start until much later in the season.
However, the increasing sea temperatures are creating ideal conditions for more tropical cyclones to form.
“Warm oceans can provide increased moisture and energy and that can enhance the severity of storms,” Ms Gamble said.
“That can feed into the storms getting into that severe thunderstorm category. It also can feed into cyclones and other rain systems as well.”
Unprepared for extreme weather
Aussies are no stranger to extreme weather, be it an oppressive heatwave or devastating winds and giant hail.
However, Allianz Insurance data found that nearly half of Aussies were underprepared for extreme weather.
“Our consumer insights show that 42 per cent of Australians haven’t done any home maintenance ahead of summer,” Allianz general chief manager Shez Ford told NewsWire.
“This is despite more than a quarter of Australians being concerned about the state of their home and its resilience to seasonal weather this summer.”
In the lead-up to blistering winds and extreme heat, Ms Ford urged Aussies to make sure their homes were prepared for anything.
“If there is a storm forecast, we advise homeowners to clear gutters and drains and secure loose outdoor items,” she said.
“If you are in an area with bushfire warnings, clear leaf litter and debris from gutters and around structures and fit ember guards where appropriate.”
Unprotected Aussies
Insurance is also a factor that the majority of Australians often forget until it’s too late.
iSelect research found that 75 per cent of Aussies failed to review their home and contents insurance, only to be left picking up the pieces.
She urged residents to ensure they were not “underinsured” and had a clear understanding of what was in their insurance policy.
“Know what your policy covers,” she told NewsWire.
“Storm, flood and fire are often ‘defined events’, but details and exclusions vary between providers, so read the product disclosure statement and check for any gaps.”
Ms Ryan said it was imperative to buy or review what cover was available before disaster struck.
“Insurers can put temporary embargoes in place when a disaster is imminent, which can delay new cover and leave you out of pocket,” she said.
“Tell your insurer if your place will be empty for an extended period. Many policies treat a home as ‘unoccupied’ after around 60 days, which can change your cover or excess.”
Originally published as ‘Alarming’: Bureau confirms La Nina as new forecast warns of hotter, drier Aussie summer
