Tractor dealers warned sales will slump further in 2020

Agricultural tractor sales suffered another large decline last month — and more bad news is expected, writes Gary Northover.

Big hit: the 200hp and above range suffered a 22 per cent fall in sales last month.

AGRICULTURAL tractors suffered another large decline last month to be down 16 per cent compared with November last year and are now 11 per cent behind year-to-date.

The full-year picture is down to a forecast of fewer than 11,000 tractors and the promise of the market holding at a reasonable level in 2020 is diminishing.

A forecast of about 9000 tractors is predicted, which is well down on the recent peak years of 12,000-plus sales.

Falls continued in all size categories in all states, with NSW suffering the greatest declines, experiencing a further 28 per cent drop in November, and now 20 per cent behind the same time last year.

Queensland slipped another 19 per cent in the month and is now 8 per cent behind for year-to-date.

Western Australia, which had been reporting sales increases, dropped a whopping 35 per cent for the month and is now just 1 per cent ahead of last the same time year.

South Australian sales continue to struggle, down 6 per cent in November and now 25 per cent behind year-to-date. Victorian activity remains reasonably strong, in line with the same month last year and just 3 per cent behind for the 12 months.

The horticultural and wine-growing markets appear to be travelling well in the southern states and this may largely explain Victoria’s activity.

Tasmanian sales dipped, but remain 4 per cent ahead year-to-date, and sales in the Northern Territory are in line with last year. Sales in the 200hp (150kw) and above range were again down substantially, 22 per cent behind for the month and now 6 per cent behind year-to-date.

The 100hp to 200hp (75-150kw) steadied, remaining 11 per cent behind same time last year. The 40hp to 100hp (30-75kw) range was also down 19 per cent and is now sitting 13 per cent behind last year.

The under-40hp (30kw) range, struggled, down 27 per cent in November and remaining 10 per cent behind on year-to-date.

It has been a bad year for combine harvester sales, now more than 20 per cent behind last year with few forward orders reported.

The relative strength in Western Australia is being more than offset by the impact of the eastern states drought and it will take some years yet for this market to fully recover.

Demand for hay has been strong all year, but this too is showing signs of tapering.

Baler sales dipped 18 per cent in November but remain 14 per cent ahead on a year-to-date basis.

Finally, sales of out-front mowers dropped considerably, down 34 per cent in the month, and now 5 per cent behind last year on a yearly basis.

• Gary Northover is Tractor & Machinery Association of Australia executive director