What’s in store for lamb prices this year?

The long-awaited sheep industry projections have been released, and it’s good news for producers. See the predicted prices.

Australia’s lamb production will hit a record for the second year in a row with predictions slaughter will hit 23.7 million in 2024.

And in good news for producers, prices are expected to lift by June with heavy lambs expected to average 763c/kg carcass weight by mid-year.

These were two of the findings from Meat and Livestock Australia, which released its sheep industry projections on Thursday morning.

The all-critical price estimates will garner the most attention from producers; MLA uses five external analysts to predict trends.

Prime lambs prices are expected to lift by winter.

Those analysts have all agreed that prices will be higher than their current levels by mid-year.

“Analysts forecast the national heavy lamb indicator will rise to 763c/kg carcass weight by June 2024, with the upper aggregation of estimates reaching 877c/kg carcass weight,” the projections found.

The current price for the heavy lamb indicator nationally sits at 645c/kg carcass weight.

There is also good news for those with trade lambs to sell.

“The national trade lamb indicator is also forecast to increase to 751c/kg carcass weight with the upper limit 854c/kg,” the report authors said.

The national trade lamb indicator after recent sales is 615c/kg carcass weight.

But the lift in prices is tempered by the fact they are behind five-year averages for June.

The lift in lamb production comes alongside the belief that the national flock is about to fall.

The national sheep flock is expected to fall by 2.9 per cent this year.

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said Australia’s sheep flock will dip by 2.9 per cent to 76.5 million this year.

“During the 2020-2022 rebuild phase, producer focus on productivity and genetics has led to impressive marking rates across the sheep flock,” Mr Bignell said.

“However the shift from beneficial weather conditions to average conditions in 2023 led to elevated turn-off of unproductive breeding stock, resulting in a 46.7 per cent lift to sheep slaughter.”

Mr Bignell said sheep flock numbers should stabilise after this year and remain above the 10-year average.

The predicted record lamb slaughter combined with steady mutton kills should see record amounts of Australian sheep meat on the world market.

“As the largest exporter of sheep meat, high Australian production will increase globally traded sheep meat volumes,” Mr Bignell said.

“Economic resilience in the United States and emerging markets will drive demand for lambs while the outlook for consumer demand in China remains uncertain.

“Regardless, a shortage of competitor proteins will encourage imports of sheep meat in high protein consumption markets.”