What southern female kill numbers could be hiding

Female slaughter rates are high in southern rates but it may not be due to destocking. We take a look at the reason why.

Female slaughter rates in southern states could have been inflated by northern cattle being trucked down for processing, according to a key beef analyst.

Yet without any official analysis on the origin of cattle, how hard the female kill is biting into southern operations remains uncertain.

Rabobank animal protein senior analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the number of females in national slaughter figures was high, increasing from 47 per cent in 2023 and 51 per cent in 2024, to reach 53 per cent at the end of the last quarter.

“Conventionally, this suggests liquidation of the herd but we believe it reflects a more productive and fertile herd allowing for greater female turnover rather than liquidation of the herd,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“Anecdotal information suggests most Australian cattle producing areas are at normal breeding numbers.”

Rabobank senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird

Mr Gidley-Baird said some of the females being slaughtered in Victoria could have come from NSW or Queensland, with Queensland’s female slaughter rate at the end of the first quarter sitting at a comparitively low 40 per cent compared to other states including Victoria at 70 per cent and NSW at 58 per cent.

“There are northern cows coming south to fill processing space, potentially because they have been able to source them cheaper,” he said.

“But it’s pretty hard to gauge what is going on exactly.

“We know there is a proportion of females sold in Victoria, South Australia and southern NSW but there are also producers who have sent their cattle away on agistment to hold numbers.”

But Victorian Farmers Federation livestock group vice president and South Gippsland cattle producer Peter Miller said there was little doubt fellow farmers were cutting into herds.

“I know myself that I have cows and calves I am selling to make way for other cattle,” Mr Miller said.

“There’s a load that’s gone away this week.

“There are a lot of people that I know that are selling a lot of cattle and I’ve heard that some processors are booked out for weeks.”

Mr Miller said many producers were offloading older cows, and choosing to feed younger breeders.

“There are cuts into breeding herds and we decided keeping and feeding our younger breeders would allow us to build back up when it does rain,” he said.

“You can just see that when the seasons are good again, a young breeding female will be worth a lot of money.”

Livestock agents take the bids at the Wodonga cattle sale where big numbers of females have been offered in the past few months.

While cow prices had not collapsed under the numbers, Mr Gidley-Baird said the demand from the US was not following through to rates.

“With beef shortages in the US and strong consumer demand, domestically produced lean trim has risen to record levels (in the US),” he said.

“However imported prices have not seen the same rise.

“Our research believes the record price spread (between US domestic beef and imported beef) are due to lack of competition from other buyers in the market as well as increased volumes of Brazilian beef being sold into the US.”