Shock figures in latest estimates on national sheep flock
The ever shrinking national sheep flock has just hit a new low, as farmers make the decision to turn to other enterprises due to prices and input costs.
Australia will shear its lowest number of sheep in a century as the national flock dips to historic lows.
The latest estimates from the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee puts wool production in the current financial year at 279.4 million kilograms shorn from 63.2 million sheep, down 12 per cent on last year.
In a state-by-state breakdown on wool volumes:
– Victoria’s production is expected to dip 6.3 per cent to 55.9 million kilograms
– Western Australia’s volume will fall 9.3 per cent to 44.7 million kilograms
– NSW wool cut will lift slightly (0.4 per cent) to 110.5 million kilograms.
And WA will slip to fourth in terms of wool production, lagging behind NSW, Victoria and South Australia.
Committee chairman Stephen Hill said a raft of factors were pushing down numbers, as farmers turned to other enterprises.
“You have to have a passion for running sheep and clearly there’s not as many people who have that,” Mr Hill said.
To put the numbers in perspective, the estimated flock size for 2024/2025 is 60 per cent lower than three decades ago, where Australia shore 156 million sheep in 1994/1995.
Mr Hill said wool producers were making decisions to stop running sheep or to decrease numbers.
”This is due to commodity prices, input costs and other external factors,” Mr Hill said.
“Together with variable seasonal conditions, these decisions are pointing towards structural
change in the wool industry evident in declining numbers of sheep shorn and consequently
shorn wool production”.
The forecast is widely considered to be an accurate assessment on numbers, and draws on input from six regional committees and wool testing information from the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
The estimates also reflected sheep slaughter figures, with July-September numbers up 28 per cent compared to the same period last year, and 66 per cent up on the five-year average for that period.
Mr Hill said the falls in wool production would put pressure on buyers.
“I was in China a few weeks ago and the mood was quite positive,” he said.
“But to put the current predicted production in perspective, China takes about 285 million kilograms of Australian wool, so that means they would need to buy our entire clip this year.
“There is a lot of infrastructure built around wool (processing) so hopefully when economics pick up, and there is not enough wool, that will flow through to prices.”
Mr Hill said sentiment was playing into whether producers stuck with growing wool or turned to other enterprises.
“Wool is still a super important industry – prices should be double what they are now,” he said.
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