Sheep prices lower than a year ago

Young Merino ewes sold at Hay for an average that was 60 per cent below last year. But there is still some hope for the first-cross ewe sales to come.

There was a bit of hope and some stark reality at last week’s opening Merino ewe sale at Hay in the NSW Riverina which is regarded as setting the tone for all the other spring sheep markets to follow.

The hope was better than expected prices for the lead pens of ewes from noted breeders and which have a dedicated following of repeat buyers.

The reality was any Merino ewes which lacked size or scale, or were more inclined to be “heavier skinned” wool types showing wrinkle, were quickly pulled back on price.

The Hay sale showed two differing buying groups – the repeat/quality buyers (mainly specialist first-cross ewe breeders) taking a longer-term view of the market and prepared to pay for the sheep that form part of their regular breeding programs.

The other was the opportunity buyer which was operating more on price.

It meant results for the young 2022-drop Merino ewes stretched from $36 to a top of $252 – noting there was only two pens of ewes which made above $200.

Elders reported an average of $119 for the young ewes it sold, down by 60 per cent on the average of $283 achieved a year ago.

And that is the stark reality. Prices are vastly lower than a year ago for vendors, and the market is likely to remain subdued and possibly get more difficult as the spring progresses and the season deteriorates amid hotter weather.

Plainer and smaller ewes still face an uncertain spring, even though they generally sold better than expected at Hay at between $60 to $80. Because, as the store cattle market has shown in recent days, the bottom for sheep may not have been broached yet.

This pen of 202 Merino ewes, from Murgha, Moulamein, NSW, sold for $60 at the Hay sheep sale.

There were reports of Angus heifers making 80c/kg to 170c/kg liveweight at Ballarat last week as the market continues to melt on no confidence and little spring rain.

The $252 price at Hay was the ultimate repeat buyer scenario, with the same two specialist first-cross ewe breeders who had chased the Yarto Merino ewes to record tops of $512 and $440 in the past two seasons again going head-to-head.

Put that sale aside, and most of the lead Merino ewes sold from $160 to $198. On past analysis, first-cross ewe prices usually hit highs $40 to $60 above the peak of the Merino rates.

This theoretically puts them in a band of $200 to $250, and Bendigo and Corowa agents told The Weekly Times after the Hay they believe this is still achievable on the lead runs which have a repeat buyer following.

However there are a couple of question marks over whether this analysis will stand up this season.

Last week’s Narrandera, NSW, first-cross ewe sale was rated as tough enough, with just one pen at $182 (for standout quality young sheep at an average of 68kg at just 14-15-months) and a lot of decent young crossbreds from $80 to $150.

Narrandera is in an area where the season is closing in and the southern lamb industry is better situated feed wise.

But an interesting theory put forward is crossbred ewes might not make their usual premiums above Merinos this year due to crossbred wool being worthless and shearing being a pure cost. Some agents suggested Merino ewes are being supported by still reasonable returns for wool and the dual income of meat and fibre.

Auctioneers work hard for bids at the Hay sheep sale.

For the big first-cross ewe sales scheduled for October and November, a lot could depend on how the mutton market holds up as the industry pushes deeper into spring.

Rates of $15 to $35 for old ewes erodes what buyers are prepared to pay for replacements. There is a component of farmers who sell mutton early who still received reasonable money of $80-plus for big old ewes, and this was a factor behind some of the stronger prices paid for the lead pens at Hay.