Producer survey tells what’s really happening with cattle numbers

Drought in the south and floods in the north have hardly been ideal times for producers, but a new survey shows where the national herd is heading.

Northern Australia might boast of its beef credentials, but its southern cousin has more cattle.

It’s one of the findings from Meat and Livestock Australia’s producer intentions survey, a questionnaire that gauges their plans and sentiments.

The results show that despite tight conditions across south-eastern Australia, the national herd is not in liquidation.

A breakdown of numbers reveals southern Australia has more breeding cows, more heifers, more steers under two years old and more bulls than northern Australia, while overall producer sentiment was higher than six months ago.

Overall, southern producers said they had 15,035,599 cattle, compared to 12,903,156 in the north.

Of the 3116 responses, 26 per cent said they planned to increase their herd size while 56 per cent said they would keep numbers the same over the next 12 months. Only 19 per cent expected their herd size to decrease in the coming year.

As for sentiment, six out of 10 producers said they were positive about the industry.

Some of the biggest factors driving positive sentiment were increased prices, more rain in some areas and increased demand for beef.

The biggest factors driving negative sentiment was geopolitics and tariffs, which 49 per cent of respondents raised as their major issue. This was followed by lack of rainfall, lower prices, cost of production and government regulations.

The survey also showed that of the national herd of 28 million cattle, 69 per cent or 19.2 million were breeding females, either grown cos or heifers, while 29 per cent were steers or bullocks.

Of the nation’s beef herd, 69 per cent are cows or heifers. Picture: Zoe Phillips

StoneX Australian livestock commodities manager Ripley Atkinson said the results from the survey supported his view that the national herd was not liquidating, despite high female slaughter rates.

“As sure as night turns to day, the data - direct from producers - further supports my view that the national herd hasn’t been in liquidation, and expansion or maintenance of the herd is on the cards for the next 12 months across the country, particularly the north,” Mr Atkinson said.

“Location specificity does need to be accounted for here: the south has been liquidating, no doubt, but what I think we need to remember is the fertility in the cow herd down south means a rebuild happens now much faster than it used to.”

Mr Atkinson said this meant that cattle numbers would continue to rise steadily rise.

“This will be driven by positive seasons in the north and improved breeder herd fertility, which means cattle supply should remain strong well into the second half of 2026.”

MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell said the survey showed “a cautious but optimistic approach by producers”.

“The majority are maintaining herd size, which suggests confidence in current market conditions but also awareness of ongoing risks such as trade uncertainty, concern about weather, and prices and input costs,” Mr Bignell said.

“The April 2025 survey was conducted during a period of mixed seasonal and market conditions.

“At that time, northern Australia experienced significant rainfall and flooding, which limited survey participation in central and south-western Queensland but improved pasture conditions and market optimism in other areas.

“In contrast, southern Australia continued to face dry and drought conditions, influencing breeding and sales strategies.”