Prime lamb positivity drops

Less than 20 per cent of producers are positive about prime lamb production, with a big dip in confidence expected to flow into the new year.

Prime lamb numbers could fall 8 per cent next year as producers react to the dive in returns.

The Sheep Producers Intentions Survey, released on Monday, showed a big dip in confidence and this is expected to flow onto a smaller turn-off of lambs next year.

While sentiment was down 8 points for wool growing, it slumped 42 points for sheep meat in survey responses collected in late October and early November.

And in a stark result, less than one in five producers reported they were positive about prime lamb production and just 1 per cent were classed as very positive.

At the other end of the sentiment scale, 60 per cent of producers were negative in their outlook for prime lambs.

Lamb turn-off is expected to fall from 27.05 million this year to 24.96 million in 2024.

This year, lambs make up 38 per cent of the total national flock.

The major reasons for the smaller turn-off and the swing away from prime lamb production were price volatility, a desire to scale down sheep production and drought.

This is reflected in the year-on-year change in flock size plans, another part of the survey.

Of those who responded, only 34 per cent said they would be increasing their flock size compared to 46 per cent a year ago in a sharp move away from rebuilding numbers.

In comparison, 44 per cent of survey respondents said they would be down sizing their flocks, compared to 26 per cent in the October 2022 survey.

The survey is conducted three times a year jointly by Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation to help industry determine wool and lamb production forecasts.

Full surveys are carried out in May and October, with an update released in February which takes into account any seasonal changes through the main selling season.

More than 1700 sheep producers responded to the survey, with their answers weighted using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.