Mutton prices start to buckle under spring flush of numbers

Swings of $20 from week to week are making it hard for sheep producers to work out when to sell. And it seems no one knows when prices might settle.

A fickle mutton market is producing swings of up to $20 from week to week as producers look to turn off extra numbers.

But there are those that think mutton prices could baulk the traditional spring price pressure as year-to-date export mutton figures reflect high sheep turnoff.

While the national mutton indicator has lost 46c/kg in the past month, and closed on Monday at 281.72c/kg, it is still not dipping to the lows experienced a year ago where it fell to less than 100c/kg carcass weight in late September. It hit a peak of 446c/kg carcass weight in July this year.

At Bendigo on Monday, the National Livestock Reporting Service quoted sheep sold $5-$12 cheaper despite a smaller offering, while Corowa’s prices were also back and settled in the 250-300c/kg carcass weight range.

MLA senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said mutton prices were historically seasonal, and supply-demand driven.

“In the two years before the volatile 2023 market, mutton prices remained relatively stable and this was due to low throughput and high demand of producers working to restock,” Ms Lukey said.

“We saw a spike in sheep sales over summer, which was a combination of the market lifting post the September 2023 bottom ... MLA still expects a significant breeding flock that is yet to be turned off..”

HF Richardson and Co agent Bernie Nevins from Ballarat said he had never seen such inconsistency in mutton prices.

“I really thought we would have seen the market steady by now but it jumps around from week to week and it’s hard to get a read on it,” Mr Nevins said.

“There are still clearly numbers coming forward, whether to the yards or direct to processors, as producers look to lighten stocking rates.

“But at some stage, you would think that sell off will pull up and prices should steady or even lift a bit.”

And while spring traditionally sees a dip in mutton rates, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences economist Gaby Coulthard said average mutton saleyard prices were forecast to rise 38 per cent this financial year to 319c/kg carcass weight, up from 231c/kg set in 2023-24.

“The expected recovery in mutton saleyard prices reflects both a rise in saleyard demand, due to increased processor competition, and a fall in the supply of sheep to saleyards due to improved seasonal conditions,” Ms Coulthard said.

MLA expects mutton exports to lift to 249,000 tonnes this year, but up to 284,000 tonnes next year. Greater China is the biggest market this year for mutton taking 46,526 tonnes, followed by the Middle East and North Africa (41,061 tonnes) and South East Asia (28,115 tonnes).