Lamb prices: Why national trade lamb indicator will continue upwards trend

Even with a surge in the number of lambs yarded at sales, analysts have a positive outlook for lamb prices into next year.

Big spikes in prices have sparked hopes the worst of the downturn for the lamb industry has happened.

Heavy lambs were up to $30 dearer at Bendigo on Monday, following on from Wagga Wagga in NSW last week where prices reached a top of $270 in a market where 26-30kg carcass weight lambs averaged more than 700c/kg.

The national trade lamb indicator closed at 611c/kg early this week, up 76c/kg in a week, but the big movers are export lambs, with the heavy lamb indicator spiking by 103c/kg in the past seven days to close at 654c/kg.

The rises have come as welcome news to producers who had seen some of the lowest rates in years through spring, and much of the lift has been attributed to a change of confidence spurred by rain.

Sheep yarded at the Ballarat first-cross ewe sale last week, where about 20,000 were on offer. Picture: Zoe Phillips

It also flowed on to the Ballarat first-cross market late last week where prices reached a top of $270 in the offering of about 20,000.

Nutrien agent John Wagstaff from Ballarat said the number of light lambs already killed should see prices on the improve.

“I think and hope that we have seen the worst of the low prices,” Mr Wagstaff said.

“For six to eight weeks at Ballarat, we have seen yardings in the high 20,000s and early 30,000s (of lambs) and we have not seen many go back to the paddock.

“This has to be good for lamb prices going forward as those lambs are not in the system.”

Meat and Livestock Australia market analyst Emily Tan said the price rises in the past week were despite a rise in yardings.

“Sheep and lamb prices lifted over the week with overall yardings increasing by 69,370 to 412,418. Lamb yardings increased by 51,442 to 286,068,” Ms Tan said.

“Prices lifted across every state and nearly in every saleyard.”

Ms Tan said the National Livestock Reporting Service reported bidding for heavy lambs was so competitive at Wagga Wagga, the price lifted 115c/kg to 717c/kg carcass weight.

Mecardo market insights lead Olivia Agar said lamb prices should improve next year on the back of the large number already processed this season.

“We’ve seen a lot of lightweight lambs, or bag lambs, processed in the year to date which will take potential finished heavy lambs out of the system in the first half of 2024,” Ms Agar said.

“So were expecting stronger demand from export processors during this period to see the premium for finishing these lambs return.”