Cattle slaughter drops by almost a million

New data shows Victoria’s cattle slaughter has dropped significantly in the past five years, but what issues are to blame for the fall?

Slaughter capacity was an industry theme throughout 2023 and there is data to suggest Victoria’s cattle kill has dropped nearly one million head in the past five years.

Statistics published by PrimeSafe, which is the statutory body that licenses and regulates meat production in Victoria, shows the states cattle kill has been on a steep decline.

Figures published in its annual report this year were:

2.190 million cattle processed in Victoria during the 2018-19 financial year;

1.892 million cattle in 2019-20;

1.633 million cattle in 2020-21;

1.214 million cattle in 2021-22; and

1.216 million cattle this past financial year in 2022-23.

In raw figures the PrimeSafe data calculates out to a drop of more than 970,000 slaughter cattle in the past two years in Victoria compared to the highs of 2018-19 which it should be noted were drought seasons.

Why is the big question to come out of it. Suggestions were to consider the downturn in the dairy industry in recent years – figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirming a 23 per cent drop in the number of dairy businesses in the years from 2016 to 2021.

Another possible over-arching issue is the shift to breeding cattle in the south rather than finishing stock, with Victoria now seemingly more reliant on selling store calves and feeder steers and heifers to northern areas for finishing and slaughter.

The growth of store cattle sales in Gippsland (particularly in Leongatha which was once the heart of bullock production) and Mortlake and Ballarat in the Western District supports this argument of a shift to breeding rather than finishing cattle in Victoria.

However there are holes in the analysis because a long-term look at cattle slaughter across all states shows a significant drop in production, and a very disrupted pattern in the past five years compared to the long-term slaughter trend.

In the past two decades 2014-15 was the peak of cattle slaughter, with Queensland production reaching 4,065,225 head in the 2014 calendar year, according to data published by Meat and Livestock Australia.

As this year’s figures are still being finalized, in 2022 the Queensland cattle kill was listed at 2,339,432 head, for a drop in percentage terms of 74 per cent.

In NSW cattle slaughtered reached 2,000,685 head in 2014, and in 2022 was at 1,234,744 head, for a decline of 62 per cent.

Victoria’s drop in production is harsher, slipping from a high of 1,540,635 cattle in the 2014 calendar year down to 580,077 head in 2022. This works out to a fall of 165 per cent, much greater than the other states. (There is a discrepancy between the PrimeSafe and MLA figures, due in part to the data sets being financial versus calendar year figures.)

It suggests there are additional issues at play in Victoria rather than the over-riding factors of seasonal conditions and herd culling and rebuilding that have taken place across Australia in recent years.

Australian Meat Industry Council general manager industry affairs Tim Ryan said weather had been the main factor behind shifting production figures.

“The Victorian cattle kill did come back in the last three years, but this was driven by the normal El Nino – La Nina weather driven supply cycle,” he said.

“Similar trends are occurring in other states, and we saw similarly low Victorian kills back in 2017. Kills are now picking up as drier conditions (or expectations of ) bring more cattle forward to market.

“The increased kill capacity coming online in Victoria will further support this expansion into 2024. Covid may have had a bit of an impact in 2021 but (changes to cattle slaughter) is being driven largely by seasonal conditions.”