Cattle analysts divided over mid-year forecast

A new report from Meat and Livestock Australia has mid-year projections for the cattle industry varying by as much as 100c/kg liveweight.

Cattle industry analysts are divided over what could happen to prices by mid year as projections released last week vary by as much as 100c/kg liveweight.

While Meat and Livestock Australia projections go into market dynamics and herd numbers, most producers are focused on what will happen to values.

MLA draws on predictions from a number of external analysts, and these have varied dramatically.

The aggregated industry average forecast for feeder steer rates at the end of June is 363c/kg liveweight, but some analysts are predicting it could be as high as 401c/kg while the most conservative is 308c/kg.

Should the average prove right, it would represent a 4.8 per cent lift on current rates.

“Analysts note that an upward shift in local prices on the back of strong export an restocker demand will support prices into 2024,” the report’s authors said.

“Climate outlooks forecasting favourable seasonal conditions through cattle regions will potentially provide a boost to restocker demand and in turn, apply upward pressure on prices.”

Some analysts are predicting the aggregated industry average forecast for feeder steer rates at the end of June could be as high as 401c/kg. Picture: Zoe Phillips

There is also a huge variation in predictions for heavy steer prices, with the aggregated average of analysts sitting at 318c/kg liveweight, but varying from 270c/kg to 352c/kg.

But most agree rates will be higher than they are now.

“As export demand is expected to lift, with a focus on the United States market, heavier animals will be in solid demand through 2024 if conditions follow forecasts,” the authors said.

Meanwhile, there is also conjecture over the size of the national herd, which the forecasts put at 28.6 million, a slight fall on last year.

But StoneX Australian livestock and commodities manager Ripley Atkinson said he believed MLA had underestimated the influence of the northern herd’s growth in 2024.

“Generally, all of the north is primed for a very strong year, with good conditions promoting strong fertility rates and with big numbers of females, the herd can grow strongly in the north,” Mr Atkinson said.

“It’s for this reason I believe the herd will grow above 30 million head, which would make it the largest since 1976.

“The beef producer intentions survey will confirm positive sentiment in northern Australia to grow herd numbers.”