The Australian Ag Podcast: Where Australia’s best crops will come from

With grain growers gearing up for the end of their winter programs, Market Check boss Nick Crundall gives an insight into where the biggest crops will be harvested.

Victoria and southern NSW are on track to produce the best winter crops in Australia this year.

Victoria and southern NSW are in the box seat to produce Australia’s best winter crops this year, according to a leading grains analyst.

Market Check chief executive Mick Crundall told this week’s episode of The Australian Ag Podcast said while Western Australia produced an “absolute thumper” of a crop last year, tonnages in the nation’s biggest grain-producing state would not be matched this year. Similarly, crops in northern NSW and southern Queensland were buckling under the weight of drier conditions and soaring spring temperatures.

“The best crops, if you really had to narrow it down, would be in southern NSW and Victoria,” Mr Crundall said. “Those two areas haven’t really missed a lot of rain, they have been able to get under some pretty consistent rainfall through winter albeit in pretty small bursts. If you take a drive from the western border of Victoria through southern NSW you’ll see some really fantastic crops.

“It is really when you get up into the northern parts of NSW and Queensland where it does get a little bit spotty. The northern NSW crop didn’t really get planted all that well – there’s probably 30-40 per cent of planted acres versus what they wanted to put in, and it’s been struggling ever since.”

Mr Crundall said the season was a sharp turnaround from last year when NSW was awash with water, resulting in significant crop losses or downgrades.

“We’ve gone from talking about waterlogging and people not being able to get on to the fields,” he said. “The fortunes of this crop are going to be made or broken in what the September rainfall will bring us.

“A lot of people have soil moisture under them – the crops are living on that but as it gets a little bit warmer and the crops get thirstier we are going to have to see a spring break. All eyes are on the forecasts at the moment, it does look a little bit bare for most regions but fingers crossed we can get under something half decent and get this crop home because there is a lot of potential for those who have had a start.”

At Mungindi in northwest NSW, farmer Sam Heagney said “the tap has turned off very quickly” in his cropping region with yields expected to take a serious hit thanks to a lack of winter.

“It was only October last year we had floods which put a fair dent in last year’s winter crop – chickpeas literally washed away and it took a fair bit off cereals as well,” Mr Heagney said. “This year it has well and truly turned off. We’ve had only 30 per cent of our median winter rainfall – to put it in context that’s 30mm of in-crop rain.”