Rice industry tamps down expectations of 2023 crop

As minimum temperatures have plummeted, so too have expected rice crop yields. This is how growers are travelling.

The 2022-23 rice season, which was hoped to nearly equal 2022’s bumper harvest, has turned out to be one of the most challenging growers have faced.

As minimum temperatures in January and February have plummeted, so too have expected crop yields.

In a good year, the temperate climate of the Riverina, with its mean January and February minimum temperatures of 17.4 degrees celsius and mean maximums of more than 32C, make it ideal for the production of high-quality, medium-grain rice.

This year, January temperatures hit days as low as 9C at Griffith, and already in February, temperatures have dropped to a low of 7C, with a February mean so far of 9.7C.

That comes off the back of a three-week-late start to the season, after heavy rain turned paddocks into lakes in September and October.

Nutrien Ag senior agronomist Steve Cave said the season had been one of the most challenging of his career.

“There have been some difficult years, but not with everything going against us at the same time,” Mr Cave said.

“We had a very challenging start with rain holding up sowing, and since then, the season has definitely been cooler than normal.”

Ricegrowers Association of Australia president Peter Hermann says Australia’s 2023 crop will be smaller due to the cold summer. Picture: Supplied

February will be a crucial month for Australia’s rice industry as late-planted crops form the flowers that will become rice grains — a phase known as panicle initiation. During this period, temperatures below 15C can stunt a plant’s development.

“We’ve got predictions of a cooler February, and that is going affect our potential,” Mr Cave said.

Rice yields across the Riverina tend to average yields of about 12.5 tonnes to the hectare, but this year yields could go as low as nine or 10t/ha, Mr Cave said.

“It’s challenging, it’s a shame, but luckily commodity prices are fairly strong”, with growers hoping for historically high prices of about $400/t, he said.

Rice Growers Association president Peter Hermann said early sown crops — about one quarter of this year’s total — had been knocked back from “outstanding” yields of up to 15t/ha to average yields, but high water availability had allowed growers to buffer their crops with deep water.

Industry estimates suggest this year’s crop could produce a total of 500,000 tonnes of rice from 40,000 planted hectares, a sharp reduction on the 675,000 paddy tonnes produced in 2022 but above government estimates.

The latest forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, published in December, forecast a 334,000 tonne crop from 35,000ha.