Huge 2024 harvest ahead for Riverina rice growers

Australia’s southern rice growers are set for a big 2024 harvest, which will push the nation back into the black as a net exporter of the grain.

The US Department of Agriculture reports “Australia is expected to return to becoming a net exporter of rice in 2023-24 for the first time since 2017-18”. Picture: Andy Rogers

Ample water allocations and forecasts of a drier spring have primed Australia’s Riverina rice growers to push the nation back into the black as a net exporter of a grain that feeds more than half the world’s population.

The US Department of Agriculture reports: “Australia is expected to return to becoming a net exporter of rice in 2023-24 for the first time since 2017-18,” when growers harvested 800,000 tonnes.

Ricegrowers Association of Australia president Peter Herrmann said it was difficult to put any sort of number on just how much of the summer crop would be planted, but said “all in all it would be closer to the year before last” 2022 – 688,000 tonnes.

But he said it would all depend on how some of the big growers on the NSW Murray system responded, given they are sitting on combined carry-over and new season allocations of 110 per cent.

In the meantime, both growers and SunRice have dismissed speculation that India’s rice export ban will have much impact on local growers’ 2024 returns.

While India accounts for more than 40 per cent of global exports, Mr Herrmann said “it’s doubtful the ban would be sustained into the new year”.

He said the ban was likely to be reviewed and removed after India’s election in April-May next year, just when Australian rice growers were in the midst of harvesting their crops.

Rice near Leeton in the Riverina, NSW.

The US Department of Agriculture’s latest rice outlook report also highlights that India’s export ban applies to long-grain rice varieties, with medium and short grain markets unaffected.

Australia’s SunRice Group reaffirmed the USDA analysis, with a spokesman saying it “predominantly exports and sells Japonica-style medium grain and short grain rice, whereas the India Government’s non-basmati rice export ban largely relates to long grain or Indica rice varieties”.

“There has been some pressure on long grain rice prices since the India Government’s announcement of the ban, as India is responsible for approximately 10 million tonnes of non-basmati rice exports. This is one of the factors influencing current pricing and supply dynamics in the international rice market,” the spokesman said.

“The Japonica market is more likely to be influenced by factors such as the availability of Californian rice. The state of California has returned from drought earlier than expected, which has resulted in the planting of the largest rice crop in several years.”

The USDA expects “medium and short-grain imports are projected to decline 500,000 cwt (25,400 tonnes) from the year-earlier near-record, as imports of rice from Australia are expected to be much smaller due to a rebound in the California harvest”.

The USDA has also reported Australia’s upcoming rice harvest is forecast to grow by around a third on this year’s harvest of 500,000 tonnes, “supported by ample irrigation water availability”.