Grain experts weigh in on Australia’s short-term export future

Australian grain experts are predicting another bumper harvest, spring permitting, but say the industry must focus on new markets and marketing tactics to remain competitive.

The Australian grain industry must hunt for new export opportunities and investigate marketing shortfalls, experts say, as stakeholders predict above-average production this year.

Louis Dreyfus Company Australia senior commodity trader Simone Dax believed this year’s chickpea production could parallel the 2024-25 season, with high levels of plantings on the cards.

“There’s still a lot to play out but as a pulse trader it would be nice to think we’ll have 1.5m tonnes of chickpeas and lentils to trade around,” she said.

“Last year around this time we probably had similar ideas but then it was frost and a dry finish.”

Grains Trade Australia chair Andrew Goyder. Picture: Rachel Simmonds

She said Pakistan, Bangladesh and India were the largest chickpea consumers, but there should be a focus on exploring other options.

“I think it’s still going to be front-ended, whether it’s as harsh as it was last year, potentially it’s not as condensed into those three months but we’ll try as hard to get as much out before the Indian crop comes online,” Ms Dax said.

The Australian Grain Industry Conference 2025 hosted several speaker sessions on global outlook and domestic market outlooks, with an event poll showing 53 per cent of attendees believed 2025-26 domestic production would beat 2025-24 figures.

More than 30 per cent thought production would remain the same, and about 12 per cent believed production would fall.

Riordan Grains chief commercial officer Mark Lewis believed barley production would beat 2024-25 figures despite a “slow start” in South Australia and Victoria.

“I think some of the marginal areas didn’t plant, but I think most farmers are very good at planting a crop so they would have got it in, largely,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said there was a “huge opportunity” in the barley industry to adapt its marketing through a rebranding process.

“I think the industry here in Australia has not done itself any favours by selling what we would call an FAQ barley (fair average quality),” Mr Lewis said.

“The challenge I see is how we can rebrand what we’re doing in that space. The cost pressures from China are what they are, but at least we can sell a product that’s not being deemed fair average.

“Let’s rebrand it and instead of FAQ we call it MAV – Malt (Accredited) Variety Barley.”

He believed a branding shift would help enhance Australia’s high-quality barley product.

Grain Trade Australia chair Andrew Goyder believed the long-term outlook for the industry was “healthy”.

“(The industry) hasn’t been bullish, but I think we’ll be on quite a plateau. There’s a lot of grain out there,” he said.

“After deregulation there’s lots of different markets farmers can go to now.”