Fodder demand rises to battle wet paddocks

Despite an El Nino alert, it is wet conditions that are driving a surge in demand for Victorian fodder.

As we approach midwinter, the need for supplementary feeding of fodder continues but not in the same fashion the market had anticipated.

The weather forecast that began in March as an El Nino Watch with a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino forming, developed to an El Nino Alert in late May with a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino.

The anticipated dry paddocks in winter suggested a lack of pasture growth and an increase in fodder demand.

Overlaying the chances of an El Nino is another set of probabilities that reflects how El Nino events change rainfall. Climate scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology point out that the strength of the El Nino is not proportional to rainfall impacts but in previous El Nino years the winter rainfall has been 28 per cent lower than the long term average.

Despite the climate forecasts, the June rainfall for southeast South Australia as well as western, central and northern Victoria was decile 10 rainfall or more than double the monthly average.

Demand for fodder has risen after a wetter than expected June across much of Victoria.

Victorian fodder demand is active more for relief from wet paddocks than dry pastures.

Rather than reaching to the phone to buy some high quality cereal hay from northern Victoria, buyers are picking through the hay types on offer within reasonable freight.

Buyers at Timboon and Leongatha are sourcing local pasture hay or cereal hay and straw from northern Victoria. According to hay merchants there is an increasing trend towards increasing intensity of production for beef and dairy. As land prices escalate, farmers are tending to run with higher stocking rates and a more fodder imports to the main farm.

An exception to the wet conditions in Victorian is the coast strip of NSW where it has been dry all year with portions receiving less than 60 per cent of the average year to date.

In the five months to the end of May, dairy farmers in the Bega Valley received decile 2 to 3 rainfall which was followed with less than 5mm for June.

Those livestock producers with irrigation and plentiful silage are managing well with without this access to local feed, farmers have begun sourcing hay and straw.

Similar conditions are found at Taree, Port Macquarie and Kempsey where the most competitive hay is being sourced from South Australia. Compared to their counterparts in Victoria, SA growers have reduced local demand and better access to cost effective road train routes for hay markets in the central and northern coastal regions of NSW.

Fodder prices are steady with little change through the season. Some growers with low quality oaten hay who were hoping to achieve $250 a tonne ex northern Victorian farm in winter are now off-loading stocks at under $200 a tonne.

As many soil profiles are loaded with moisture and the rain events remain frequent, confidence in new crop production is rising and growers need to clear shed space before harvest preparation of September.