‘Barley does well in dry seasons’: 2025-26 crop edges towards 14.55 million tonnes

Australia’s barley crop is heading towards 14.55 million tonnes. However, farmers fear the big crop will dampen prices.

Australia’s barley crop is set to approach record levels in 2025–26, with production forecast at 14.55 million tonnes - just shy of the 2020–21 record of 14.64 million tonnes.

In addition, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences expects national barley yields to reach 3.05 tonnes per hectare, the second-highest on record.

But it’s not all good news for farmers, particularly those facing dry conditions who opted for barley over other crops, with fears that higher production could weigh on returns, with prices already about 15 per cent lower than a year ago.

Victoria, NSW and Western Australia were leading the yield increase, with ABARES noting gains of up to 15 per cent in key growing regions.

Despite slightly less acreage than in past record years, stronger yields were driving overall production higher.

Mecardo market analysis shows the large crop was likely to exert pressure on feed barley prices, which were currently trading at $330 to $400 a tonne, while high-quality malting barley attracts premiums of $50 to $70 a tonne above feed rates.

This time last year Malt1 barley was trading at $400 a tonne, and BAR1 $375 a tonne.

Jason Mellings who farms at Carron said barley was one of the better looking crops in Victoria in the current dry conditions.

“Of all the crops it looks the best,” he said.

Mr Mellings said it was clear there was a big crop coming onto the market and some flat pricing due to supply and demand.

“We can hope for the best and see where prices end up at harvest, and if it is not great we can store on farm and wait,” he said.

“It will depend on what we get at harvest and how much feed grain is on the market, all we can do is hang in the breeze and hope for the best.”

Farmers say they will wait and see what happens with the barley price and may store on farm rather than sell. Picture: Zoe Phillips

Gorst Rural general manager Cam Conboy of Lake Bolac said in a season like the current one barley was one of the crops that would traditionally do well.

“Barley does well in dry seasons and wheat does better in wetter seasons,” he said.

Barley was also had more flexibility for the sowing date.

“A lot of people pulled out of other crops and put barley in, and from our point of view it looks really good,” he said.

In wetter years barley crops in the Lake Bolac area can be susceptible to disease pressure, and that hadn’t been the case this season.

“I would say the season is running three or four weeks behind, and our barley is just at the elongation stage, we are not yet at flowering,” he said.

“We just need more rain, another 20mm to 30mm would be ideal but we might be lucky to get 5mm.”

Meanwhile the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report indicates that world barley production was higher due to increases in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine partly offset by a decline for Russia.