ABARES: record winter grain crop, driven by favourable weather

Australia is set to produce its biggest winter grain crop on record. But farmers are questioning how much heavy storm damage will impact the figures.

Australian grain growers are set to harvest their biggest crop on record. Picture:Zoe Phillips

Australian grain growers are forecast to harvest their biggest winter crop on record.

In its December crop report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has estimated national grain production at 58.4 million tonnes, eclipsing the previous record of 56.7 million tonnes set in 2016-17.

That is a 6.6 per cent increase from the bureau’s last forecast made in September.

ABARES has forecast a new record for wheat production of 34.4 million tonnes and 5.7 million tonnes for canola.

Barley production is the second largest on record at 13.3 million tonnes.

The huge crops have been underpinned by a record 21.2 million winter harvest in Western Australia and NSW producing its second biggest crop.

The WA crop is 4.4 per cent higher than ABARES’ September forecast and nearly 20 per cent larger than the state’s previous record of 17.7 million tonnes harvested in 2016-17.

Victoria is expected to produce a crop of 8.4 million tonnes — its third largest on record — while the South Australia harvest has been estimated at eight million tonnes.

Queensland is expected to produce its second largest crop, at 2.9 million tonnes.

The bureau has abandoned forecasts of lentil, chick pea, faba bean, lupin, field pea, oat and triticale production in its new format report.

ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the big rise in the winter crop from the September forecast reflected favourable growing conditions over spring which helped boost already high production prospects at the end of winter.

But Dr Greenville said recent heavy rain had delayed harvesting in NSW and Queensland, with some downgrading of crops expected.

“Flooding in northern and central parts of NSW has also resulted in production losses for some producers, but this is not expected to significantly affect state totals,” he said.

“There’s good news when it comes to mice, with increased baiting on farms during winter and spring reducing populations in affected regions, and there have been no reports of significant damage.

“A La Niña event became established in the tropical Pacific during November, increasing the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

“This above average rainfall outlook for NSW and Queensland, coupled with well above average rootzone soil moisture levels, may lead to further quality downgrades and some crop losses due to flooding, limited paddock access to complete winter harvest activities, and complete summer planting programs.”

GrainGrowers Limited chairman and Quambatook farmer Brett Hosking said the latest estimates didn’t take into account heavy storm damage suffered by farmers in NSW and SA, so this season’s actual forecast totals would likely come in significantly below the 58.4 million ABARES estimate.

Mr Hosking said the bureau would not have been able to factor recent storm damage in to its estimates because farmers were still in the process of tallying their losses.

“I don’t think we actually know the impact right now (of the storm damage),” he said.

He said the full extent of the damage would become apparent over the next month, and he expected to see a “significant decline” in the numbers in the worst affected states — NSW and SA.

Declines would occur in both the total tonnages and the value of the grain, Mr Hosking said.

“We will see a significant decline in the numbers in NSW and South Australia, and we’ll see more weather damaged grain,” he said.

In Victoria, Mr Hosking said tonnages may come in slightly lower than forecast due to a frost event in the west of the state in November, and “certainly the dollar value of the harvest will be down a bit”.

The Queensland and WA forecasts should be “relatively accurate”, he said.