Sheep and lamb projections forecast a drop as a result of COVID-19
The latest Meat and Livestock Australia sheep projections report shows the effect of COVID-19 and healthy rainfall across the country.
LAMB production is forecast to drop this season as producers across the country begin to restock flock.
Meat and Livestock Australia latest sheep projections report, published today, forecast a decline in both lamb production and slaughter this year.
Sheepmeat exports could also struggle from reduced food service demand, while the traditional winter slowdown in the market could support sheep and lamb prices.
MLA market analyst Adam Cheetham said the report captured the impact of rainfall across the east coast in March and April after years of heavy destocking.
“The sheep kill in particular over the last two years has seen elevated numbers driven by national restocking, particularly in NSW,” Mr Cheetham said.
“When we look at lamb kill … we know supply is going to be tight until that spring flush. The key point is we expect supplies to remain tight for the rest of the year.”
Mr Cheetham said lamb slaughter was forecast to decline 5 per cent on last year, to 20.6 million head, while lamb carcass weights are forecast to lift 0.6kg to sit at 23.9kg off the back of improved feed availability.
“However, increasing weights will not be sufficient to offset the fall in slaughter,” Mr Cheetham said.
“As a result, lamb production in 2020 is forecast to decline 2 per cent year on year to 429,000 tonnes.”
MLA forecast the sheep slaughter to drop 30 per cent to 6.5 million this year, with mutton slaughter to drop 29 per cent.
“The key takeaway is there’s a revision across both sheep and lamb slaughter for the year … that’s not going to be surprising given we’re starting to see strong restocked demand, and we know there’s fewer lambs on the ground over that joining period,” Mr Cheetham said.
Lamb exports this year were forecast to drop 1 per cent to 282,000 tonnes, while mutton exports were forecast to drop a staggering 31 per cent to 129,000 tonnes.
The global coronavirus pandemic has hit food service channels, which Mr Cheetham said was an ongoing issue.
“Global market conditions have been particularly volatile in the past few months, as the spread of COVID-19 has fostered instability, created logistic hurdles for trade and slowed food service industries around the world,” Mr Cheetham said.
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