Flock restock: Has Australia entered an official rebuild?
Has Australia entered an official flock rebuild. One industry expert explains why it’s sometimes difficult to tell. Here’s what we know.
SHEEP slaughter rates are tracking 6 per cent lower than the same time last year, as producers hold on to lambs to rebuild depleted flocks.
But predicting what could happen with the sheep market is a tricky business, according to one industry expert.
According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, sheep turn-off ratios were sitting at 14.3 per cent in June.
Meat and Livestock Australia market information analyst Penny Graham said it was expected lamb slaughter rates would reach 20.3 million head this year.
Ms Graham said that was 6 per cent lower than 2019.
“For the year to date, eastern states slaughter rates are tracking about 9 per cent lower than last year. There is the expectation producers will want to retain new lambs to rebuild the flock, and we’re expecting slaughter to be low.”
Ms Graham said an increase in lamb supply, particularly out of Victoria, would normally have been expected in coming weeks.
“In NSW we did see lambs enter the market a little earlier this year. But there’s not the expectation of that happening in Victoria,” Ms Graham said.
“In recent years, we’ve seen NSW new season lambs enter the market around August and September, whereas Victorian saleyards peak in October and November.
“But with Victorian processor shutdowns, we’ve got a very uncertain demand dynamic. There’s disruption to international food service, there’s uncertainty as producers aren’t looking to stock up on supplies if they’re not going to be able to sell.”
Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said tracking when Australia’s sheep flock was in a rebuild phase was difficult compared with the cattle herd.
“People could be holding hoggets or wether lambs for either purpose at the moment … whether you grow them out a little and add to your flock, or whether you’ve got the confidence in the market, it’s difficult to know if we’re in a genuine rebuild or not,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“The combination of a better season, better conception rates, and good lambing rates has seen some of those earlier lambs come on to the market earlier. We’ve seen the lamb price come back up since slaughter rates went down. It’s a little contrary to usual seasonal trends.”
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