Rural confidence up following summer rain

THE year has got off to a positive start for Victorian farmers, with rural confidence rebounding in the state.

THE year has got off to a positive start for Victorian farmers, with rural confidence rebounding in the state.

Following a sharp drop at the end of last year, spirits are high, according to the latest quarterly Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey.

Summer rainfall early in the year was behind much of the upswing, with farmers also hopeful for autumn rain.

Overall, 33 per cent of the state’s farmers expected conditions to improve this year, up from 22 per cent in the previous survey, while those expecting conditions to worsen more than halved to 17 per cent, down from 38 per cent.

Almost half (45 per cent) of farmers expected similar conditions to last year, up from 34 per cent.

Rabobank state manager for Victoria Hamish McAlpin said good rainfall earlier in the year had alleviated the dry conditions which had been prevailing across much of the state, but he expected farmer confidence would have eased off in recent weeks with the return of a prolonged spell of hot, dry weather.

“After recording good rainfall in January, there has been little of note in February and March,” Mr McAlpin said.

The Rabobank survey showed longer-term confidence in the sector remained robust, with a quarter of the state’s farmers looking to increase investment in their businesses, by increasing livestock numbers, improving farm infrastructure or buying property.

Beef and sheep graziers were the most positive about the market outlook, with strong prices offsetting the impact of tough seasonal conditions — particularly in the second half of last year.

Hamilton lamb producer Darren Schurman said the future of the lamb industry looked “really good”.

“I think it’s a very stable industry at the moment, the dollar is helping with that, and I think it’s all looking positive for the future,” Mr Schurman said.

Mr Schurman said the positive state of the industry had allowed him to complete a woolshed extension and other improvments on his farm and cemented his plans to increase stock numbers over the next three years.

But Victorian Farmers Federation president Peter Tuohey said things weren’t quite so rosy.

“Until it rains, enthusiasm will be a bit dampened — some areas are still yet to have rain,” Mr Tuohey said.

“There’s a high level of debt, the dollar is back up and water is expensive.

“It might be a good market for livestock, but grain and dairy markets aren’t great.”