Rebuild underway: Cattle herd projected to lift in 2021

It’s official: the national cattle herd has entered a rebuild phase. What does this mean for the industry in 2021?

An official cattle herd rebuild is underway, according to industry experts. PICTURE: Jenny Kelly.

A NATIONAL cattle herd rebuild is officially underway, as analysts tentatively suggest female slaughter figures have dipped below the 47 per cent mark, which officially heralds a rebuild period.

Meat and Livestock Australia latest cattle projections, released earlier this week, forecast cattle slaughter levels have dropped to 25-year lows as producers hold on to stock.

Beef exports were also forecast to lift 2 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes shipped weight this season, MLA said.

MLA market information manager Steve Bignell said while Australian Bureau of Statistics red meat slaughter data for the last quarter won’t be available until mid-February, a myriad of factors indicated the herd has entered a rebuild. “I’d say it’s underway,” Mr Bignell said.

The report forecast, after contracting for two years due to drought, the national herd will increase 2 per cent to 25.2 million, after falling to a historic low of 24.6 million last year.

“As the rebuild gains momentum on the assumption of above-median rainfall for the start of 2021, total adult cattle slaughter is forecast to fall 3 per cent on 2020 levels, to hit 6.9 million, the lowest in 25 years,” Mr Bignell said.

“The increase in cattle being retained for breeding purposes will cause the female slaughter percentage to drop, and in the second half of 2021, this is expected to fall below 47 per cent, signalling a technical rebuild.”

Rabobank animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird echoed MLA’s sentiments.

“I think we are in a rebuild. In the absence of the ABS data, if you track weekly slaughter numbers for the east coast, female numbers until mid-August 2020 was about 48 per cent of total slaughter. Since August until the end of January, we’re sitting at about 41 per cent,” Mr Gidley-Baird said. “Figures in the low 40s indicate a rebuild … it’ll stay there for a couple of months before pick up.

“But there are two sides to the story. The percentage of females in the slaughter figures could be because the number of males are down, if you’re fattening steers because of the good weather.”

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