How to survive the drought and prepare for rain

TOUGH drought conditions call for quite different survival strategies, writes JAMES WAGSTAFF.

Preparation is key: Dr John Webb Ware says there is much that farmers can do to survive the drought and prepare for rain. Picture: Andy Rogers

FOR many parts of southeast Australia, 2018 has been one of the driest years on record.

Following a wet start to last summer, during which some centres recorded more than four times their December average totals, the new year brought with it little to cheer about in terms of rain.

As the year progressed, the Bureau of Meteorology declared autumn the driest for Victoria since 2008 with well-below average rain across the north and east of the state.

Winter rainfall was also below average with totals average about 19 per cent down on normal. Victoria then recorded its second-driest September on record and, despite some good rain falling in recent weeks, the threat of drier-than-average El Nino conditions looms large.

When looking at rainfall data for the year so far, the worst-affected areas have been in the NSW Riverina and the Mallee and East Gippsland regions of Victoria. Centres such as Hay, Mildura and Sale are experiencing their 10th consecutive drier-than-average month and Echuca, Orbost, Wagga Wagga and Wangaratta their ninth.

Even in parts of the Western District, which enjoyed good winter rain, a particularly dry start to spring has farmers on alert.

Dr John Webb Ware from the Mackinnon Project recently gave a series of talks across the state about managing the dry, and preparing farmers for what happens once the heavens open again. Here are a few of his tips:

GROW FOR IT

THE window is closing quickly, but John reckons for livestock producers there are “incredible opportunities to grow more grass cheaply” by applying nitrogen to pastures during spring. He said 1kg of nitrogen returned about 10kg of dry matter during winter “and it could be double that in spring”.

However he cautioned that pasture must not be moisture stressed. “You do get bigger responses with nitrogen in spring … if you’ve got pasture that is still in the vegetative state — green and growing — on a pretty good forecast, I’d be targeting paddocks and taking a punt because that is the cheapest feed you’re going to grow,” John said. “And given you’re likely to have less dry matter going into summer … it means there is likely to be less supplementation.”

GRAZE ANATOMY

WITH feed normally in abundance during spring, John said he was usually pretty relaxed when it came to grazing management for cows and calves and ewes and lambs at this time of year. But realistic gains of at least 10 per cent extra grass could be achieved through rotational grazing strategies for paddocks hosting dry stock. “There are opportunities for a bit more intensive rotational grazing to tweak more growth out of the grass in spring while it is still growing … it is worth a consideration this year,” John said.

FODDER FOR THOUGHT

WHILE it is becoming too late for many, anyone with paddocks prepared for fodder crops, even as part of a pasture improvement program, could benefit from increased dry matter. “I am always a big fan of fodder crops in drought years,” John said. “Some people pull out because they think it is too dry, but if you have prepared the paddock and you’ve got a bit of moisture stored then I think it is a fair point. Even in an El Nino year, once you come to summer all bets are off in terms of rainfall … if you get a few thunderstorms it can buy you some incredibly cheap dry matter.”

TAKING STOCK

WHEN it comes to determining whether to sell stock John said feed costs versus current stock values, and potential post-rain earnings, needed to be weighed up.

“The important thing is to consider is that not only is it about managing the dry period, it is about getting back in business next year,” John said.

“Making decisions to sell a lot of stock aggressively in spring means that while that is good for cash flow upfront, with less feeding and income coming in from that stock, it means that you’ve got to either build up stock over the next few years or buy stock back in with potential genetic and disease issues. And then, of course, there is a cash-flow issue when you consider what could happen with prices next year.

“If commodity prices stay where they are for sheep, you can be pretty damn confident, given numbers have been reduced, they are not going to be cheap.”

TUCKER TIME

JOHN said he wasn’t a big fan of sheep agistment given potential biosecurity concerns they could throw up. But he said for grain growers $1 a head per week for agistment was a serious option for failed crops.

“Saying that, there are not many options around at the moment,” he said. “But when you get rain you get people saying ‘we will have a spring’ and they will take on some (stock). So if you don’t ask, you don’t know.”

John said, even with high prices of grain, farmers set up to opportunity feedlot stock were in the box seat to “make as good as margin as they ever made”. “There are real opportunities starting to emerge at the moment,” he said.

BUDGET DIRECT

IF spring does fail and supplementary feeding of livestock ramps up in the new year, John said it was important, particularly for people with large debts, to do their cash-flow budgets. “Not only for this current year but for two or three years out to make sure that your peak debt levels aren’t going to be exceeded,” he said.

John said there were a number of different ways of funding the drought — “some people do it with straight increased debt, a lot of people have got FMDs and that is what they are there for in these type of years, and off-farm assets and so on” — but it was important to understand “that if you make aggressive decisions to offload lots of stock this year, the consequences over the next few years with potentially less income is important to consider too”.

LONG-TERM VISION

JOHN said he had a No. 1 rule when it came to supplementary feeding livestock: don’t do it if you know you will run out of money before late autumn.

“That is just not an option,” he said. “To actually spend money and hope for an early autumn break, which is unlikely, is not good. You need to have the financial strength to feed right the way through.

“It doesn’t make sense to have to sell sheep because you’ve run out of money. You need to be able to fund the worst-case scenario.”