Lambs stray into unknown territory
Prices for lambs have moved from their normal patterns this autumn and winter, which is explained in the saleyard figures.
LAMB prices have skewed from their normal patterns this autumn and winter, and a breakdown of saleyard figures by weight explains why.
So far this month the number of super heavy lambs weighing over 30kg carcass weight has more than doubled on year-ago levels, with supplies tracking well above what the industry has seen in recent seasons.
At the same time, prices for heavy lambs have fallen behind the genuine domestic lamb categories.
The raw data, taken from NLRS reports, highlights the big lift in export lamb supply — although it must be noted that due to the nature of market reporting and the pace of auctions not every pen is captured in the data.
But even when viewed as a trend the shift to big lambs — and the resulting impact on price — can’t be denied.
So far this June the NLRS has collected data on 27,471 extra heavy lambs sold at the major prime markets in NSW and Victoria.
For the same two-week period last year the figure was just 13,640.
Lamb numbers in the heavy lamb category of 26-30kg cwt are also up, above 35,000, compared to 25,000 last June.
The pattern only changes when lamb weights drop below 22kg cwt. The supply of lighter 20-22kg cwt domestic lambs this June has dropped to less than 31,000 at the major saleyards in Victoria and NSW, compared to nearly 43,000 lambs in early June last year.
This all ties into the skewed lamb prices the industry has been seeing this autumn and winter, with discounting evident for the heaviest stock.
The latest national lamb price average shows the pattern, which appears to be getting more exaggerated as export demand slows down.
At Monday’s close:
HEAVY lambs (listed at 22kg plus) were at 866c/kg cwt, marking a fall of 33 cents in the past week to take the category 29 cents below the ruling rate of 12 months ago.
TRADE lambs were at 891c/kg, a correction of 20 cents in a week but still tracking 36 cents above early last June.
LIGHT lambs were quoted at 865c/kg to be 77 cents higher than a year ago.
Feedback from agents and buyers suggests the unusually high production level of heavy lambs is linked into the big store lamb prices that were evident across the season, with a lot of lambs back to the paddock costing $160 to $220.
The only way for producers to get out of these lambs is to add weight in a quest to boost dollar per head returns.
Advances in grain feeding has also led to better lamb weights.
Exaggerating this has been the boom autumn break, allowing farmers to more easily and cheaply add weight to lambs in recent weeks.
The other interesting trend in these figures is the improving price run of Merino lambs.
As the graph on this page shows, the price difference between heavy crossbred lambs and Merinos has tightened up this year.
On current figures there is a gap of just 40c/kg between the heavy crossbred lambs and good grain-fed Merinos in the 24-28kg cwt range.
At Swan Hill last week a very good run of Merino lambs, accounting for about half the yarding, sold at very strong levels to average about $225 at an estimated 840c/kg, according to the NLRS.
Even at Bendigo earlier this week, in a cheaper and fluctuating sale, Merino lambs still sold reasonably well to sit above ruling carcass price rates for the extra big crossbred lambs.
Some buyers suggested with the big lamb weights coming forward on the crossbreds was also more fat cover, and processors were favouring the better shaped Merinos for their leaner bodies.
Merino lambs are also offering processors a chance at a better price return for skins, as the crossbred pelt market remains subdued, to the point The Weekly Times understands some abattoirs are charging a fee to producers selling lambs direct when the skin is deemed to have no commercial value.
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