Fertiliser price rollercoaster to continue

Fertiliser prices have been on a “rollercoaster”, with no end to volatility in sight according to leading experts.

Fertiliser prices have been on “rollercoaster”, with no end to volatility in sight.

Thomas Elder Markets analyst Andrew Whitelaw said large swings in fertiliser prices in July and June were a result of the close relationship between urea and gas pricing.

Fertiliser prices have been up and down “like a yo yo” this year, analyst Andrew Whitelaw says. Picture: iStock

“Fertiliser prices have been like a yo you the last four months. We’ve had gas prices go up, gas prices come down. It's really volatile,” he said.

There is no publicly available fertiliser pricing data in Australia, but Thomas Elder Markets analysis shows pricing levels for urea in Australia have been in the range of A$940-970 in July, down from a high of more than A$1200 earlier in the year.

“We’re liable to stay with really high prices for some time, just because of the fact that we’ve got that issue in Ukraine with Russia,” Mr Whitelaw said.

Adding to the volatility in global markets was uncertainty over Chinese exports.

In 2021 China imposed an effective ban on fertiliser exports and indications suggested the superpower could keep a tight rein on exports for the foreseeable future, he said.

“The Chinese government wants to, wherever possible, try and maintain lower prices for fertiliser. And that’s why they’re going to keep some form of control on \prices. And the easiest way to do that is by reducing exports, to keep more within the country and outside of the country,” Mr Whitelaw said.

“The likelihood is that there is not going to be a return to normality anytime soon.”