Wheat volumes: China has ramped up its wheat imports this season

China’s wheat import program has increased, topping its previous high in 2017. Here’s what volumes they are reaching.

Trade concerns: While China banning Australian wheat was still just a rumour, Thomas Elder Markets grain analyst Andrew Whitelaw said there would be big concerns for exporters who may have vessels on the water if an announcement did hit. Picture: ANDY ROGERS

CHINESE  imports  of  wheat have ramped up this season, amid rumours the country could ban imports of the grain from Australia.

Thomas Elder Market grain analyst Andrew Whitelaw said China’s imports of most agricultural commodities remained “strong”.

“During a period when there are concerns that wheat from Australia will be under extra scrutiny, the import program for wheat has ramped up this season,” Mr Whitelaw said.

He said the calendar year to November had seen 6.7 million tonnes of wheat imported.

This compared to China’s previous high of four million tonnes in 2017. Wheat was mostly being imported from the Black Sea Region and the United States.

“There were big concerns at the start of the year with phase one of the China trade deal with the US, which requires China to buy US$36.5 billion of agriculture products during 2020,” Mr Whitelaw said.

“And they are nowhere near hitting that.

“The even bigger risk is that next year’s target is $US43.5 billion.”

While China banning Australian wheat was still just a rumour, Mr Whitelaw said there would be big concerns for exporters who may have vessels on the water if an announcement did hit.

“It is a risky deal with China, we have seen issues with timber, wine and beef,” he said.

“We have seen rumours turn into fact and there is no notification.”

He said this was previously seen with tariffs on Australian lentils into India.

But, Mr Whitelaw said impacts of a ban on wheat wouldn’t be as disastrous as China’s tariffs on barley, as there were plenty of places the grain could go.

“There is diversification there so it is not a massive issue of we lose China,” he said.

“There are lots of doors open, it wouldn’t be good but it wouldn’t be as bad as barley.”

For wheat prices, Mr Whitelaw said they were doing OK historically, as Australia was not in a drought year and had ample supply.

“Crop is not that distant to 2017 levels and prices are higher, this is partly due to overseas prices increasing since then,” he said.

“Farmers should have good value in their pocket this season and good yields.”

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