Scientists warn farmers El Niño could be brewing

SCIENTISTS are warning farmers an El Niño is likely to develop this year.

Drought in the Mallee

SCIENTISTS are warning farmers a drought-inducing El Niño is likely to develop this year.

And if it does, bringing below-average rain, it could be a triple hit in many grain-growing areas.

El Niño conditions would bring dry conditions, compound the effects of low soil moisture and delay sowing, according to Australian ­Export Grains Innovation Centre senior scientist David Stephens.

Soil moisture levels are down to the lowest in the past 100 years in several regions north of Bendigo to the Murray River, including Swan Hill and Rochester. In southern Victoria, soil moisture levels are in the lowest 20 to 40 per cent of ­recordings in the past 100 years.

Light showers in the past week have also delayed dry sowing in many regions, setting crops’ potential back ­further.

Dr Stephens said farmers usually began sowing in the first two weeks of May, but many had delayed it this ­season.

“Because of the strong possibility of an El Niño ­developing, they are still waiting for a break of some sort,” Dr Stephens said.

“A lot of indicators suggest an El Niño will develop, but it is not a certainty; last year one was developing but it fell over.”

Dr Stephens said the later sowing happened, the more conservatively farmers ­approached the season.

Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Kevin Smith said if current conditions persisted, an El Niño would be in play.

Victorian Farmers Federation vice-president and Horsham grain grower David Jochinke said he was still waiting for the break and soil in most paddocks was “as dry as a chip”.

His farm received 6mm of rain at the weekend, but windy conditions and light showers were frustrating, and prevented farmers dry sowing or spraying.

Some Wimmera crops had been sown, but farmers were “only working bankers’ hours” at the moment, waiting for a more substantial break.

“We will really rely on in-crop rainfall this year,” Mr Jochinke said.

According to the BOM, southern Victoria should ­expect more showers later this week, clearing on the weekend.

But the Wimmera and to the north of Horsham and into the Mallee will receive only 1-2mm this week.