Record Australian east coast winter crop production forecast

Winter crop production across Australia is booming. Here, we reveal what volumes are officially forecast to reach for wheat, barley and canola.

National winter crop production totals are just shy of the biggest harvest on record, ABARES says.

GRAIN production on the east coast of Australia has smashed records this season, reaching volumes not seen in four years.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics Australia crop report for February has forecast NSW, Victoria and Queensland’s combined winter crop production to hit about 29.9 million tonnes for the 2020-21 season.

In the record year of 2016-17, the east coast produced about 28 million tonnes.

And national winter crop production totals are also just shy of the biggest harvest on record, with 2020-21 volumes skyrocketing 89 per cent on last year to 55.2 million tonnes.

In 2016-17, national winter crop production reached 56.67 million tonnes.

“This is 7.4 per cent higher than the forecast presented in the December 2020 crop report,” ABARES acting executive director Jared Greenville said.

“The upward revision was the result of yields continuing to exceed expectations as harvest progressed, particularly in NSW and Western Australia.”

Nationally, ABARES predicts wheat production to have boomed by 120 per cent in 2020-21 to 33.3 million tonnes.

Barley production is anticipated to have increased by 45 per cent to 13.1 million tonnes, while canola is expected to have risen by 74 per cent to 4.1 million tonnes.

For Victoria, winter crop production is estimated to be the highest on record, increasing by 27 per cent in 2020–21 to 9.5 million tonnes, ABARES found.

This month’s estimate is 2.7 per cent higher than the December ABARES forecast.

Stellar winter crop production in NSW is estimated to rise to a record high of 18.7 million tonnes in 2020-21.

This is 88 per cent above the 10-year average to 2019–20.

Meanwhile for summer crops, which are still being harvested, ABARES predicts production will beat last year’s numbers, however they will still “come in below average”.

Dr Greenville said summer crop production was estimated to increase to 3.3 million tonnes in 2020-21.

“This is around 13 per cent below the 10-year average to 2019-20 because planted area remains below average due to limited planting in NSW on the back of large winter crop plantings and a poor start to the summer crop season in some areas of Queensland,” he said.

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