NAB tips bigger wheat crop due to good rain in west

THE National Australia Bank has upgraded its national wheat crop estimate.

NAB tips bigger wheat crop

THE National Australia Bank has upgraded its national wheat crop forecast on the back of good rain across Western Australia, but the Victorian crop estimate remains below average.

The bank tipped this year’s national wheat crop to reach 21.6 million tonnes, but said good spring rain in key grain-growing regions could take it above 23 million tonnes.

The upgrade from NAB’s June estimate of 20 million tonnes came after falls of 50 -100mm of rain in late July and early August across Western Australia’s wheatbelt.

This rain event also saw a dramatic jump in wheat yield predictions from the Export Grain Innovation Centre, which bumped up its forecast for the state from an average of 1.53 tonnes/ha to 2.02 tonnes/ha.

The news is not so rosy for Victoria, however. NAB predicted Victoria’s wheat crop to reach 2.11 million tonnes, 23.2 per cent down on its June estimate, and is also lower than the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ June forecast of 3.2 million tonnes for Victoria.

“In South Australia and Victoria, forecasts are contingent on spring rainfall and production could be much lower if sufficient spring rainfall doesn’t eventuate,” NAB Agribusiness general manager Khan Horne said.

The bank estimated wheat yields in Victoria to be 1.3 tonnes/ha this season, tipping WA’s yields to reach 1.65 tonnes/ha and total production for the state to hit 8.5 million tonnes.

Australian Crop Forecasters are relatively optimistic about the national crop, predicting wheat production to reach 25.9 million tonnes, with 3.6 million tonnes for Victoria and 8.4 million tonnes in Western Australia.

ProFarmer chief analyst Hannah Janson said the ACF forecast takes actual rainfall for the growing season and assumes average rainfall for the rest of the year.

Using an El Nino scenario in their modelling, ACF predicted the national wheat crop could drop to 21.3 million tonnes. Ms Janson said the low amount of moisture in soil profiles meant decent rain was needed from now until the end of spring. “Crops are getting by, but we are relying on spring rainfall,” she said.