Demand set to rise with onset of wet weather
Livestock operators are currently dealing with the challenges associated with wet weather, including increased chances of herd traffic bogging precious pastures.
COLD and wet weather is challenging livestock operators and offering potential for increasing winter demand for hay.
These challenges are greater for dairy farmers who are trying to maintain milk production of their herds through a high plane of nutrition.
Northern Victorian dairy farmers know how the weather can swing wildly from dry to wet. Many held off irrigating summer crops and pastures, preferring to reserve their high-cost irrigation water for autumn.
After they irrigated paddocks to germinate winter pastures, northern Victoria recorded decile eight rainfall in March and decile 10 in April.
Four of the six soil moisture probes monitored by Agriculture Victoria in the Murray and Goulburn Valleys have already reached full profiles early in the winter.
Similar wet profiles can be found in southern Victoria particularly in the Heytesbury and West Gippsland regions. Probes at Hamilton, Jancourt and Longwarry currently sit at 100 per cent.
The consistent rain means paddocks near Echuca have become quite wet, increasing the chances of herd traffic bogging precious pastures.
Some are turning to feed pads to restrict this damage, and to extend the rotational grazing period between paddocks. Access to green pastures will decline in these circumstances, offset by a lift in conserved forage.
Buying strategies of dairy farmers varies widely, as some will have purchased all the cereal and vetch hay they need for winter and others will hold minimal stocks, planning to buy in hay if it is needed. Regardless of the strategy, the cold and wet weather will draw heavily on fodder stocks during winter.
According to climate analysts, the medium-term weather outlook also appears colder and wetter. Eight out of 12 weather models are calling for a negative Indian Ocean Dipole for spring, normally associated with a La Nina event.
However this is yet to be convincingly coupled to a positive Southern Ocean Index of the Pacific Ocean.
New-crop vetch and oaten hay is in and out of the ground in the southern Mallee.
Some April sown cereal hay crops are well advanced ahead of winter due to ideal soil moisture and warm temperatures.
One downside of this growth that crops could achieve this season is the subsequent loss in hay quality. Large-volume crops are normally associated with high- fibre, low-energy hay that struggles to achieve top export grades. Hay growers are increasingly wary of producing large volumes of lower quality hay in a season when domestic demand is trending down.
Large volumes of lower quality hay can also suffer reduced gross margins through high harvesting costs. The time and energy to cut, rake and bale large crops draws heavily on the revenue of lower value hay.
Hay growers between Hopetoun and Jeparit are aware of this potential, but feel powerless to influence the biomass that may be accumulated in their paddocks this season. For this reason, a cold and wet winter that can restrict winter growth would be welcomed.
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