Spring rain expected to bring average crop yields
Despite a wetter-than-usual rain forecast, the potential for frost does not inspire forward sales by growers.
LAST week’s rain was better than forecast and delivered useful falls to the Wimmera and Western District.
Mortlake received 40mm, but falls further north were generally less. Horsham received 20mm, Warracknabeal 11mm, Swan Hill 5mm, and Charlton 6mm.
More showers are expected tomorrow, with 10-15mm forecast for next week over all of southeast Australia except for the northern Mallee and the western Riverina.
Barley crops near Pyramid Hill are coming out in head and about to flower while wheat crops are expected to come out in head in the next fortnight.
Crops from Warracknabeal to Birchip are showing signs of moisture stress, particularly along the tree-lined edges.
Growers are generally expecting average yields from their winter crops.
The medium period outlook for rainfall may be for wetter than average, but these dry conditions and the potential for frosts do not inspire forward sales by growers.
According to brokers, Victorian growers have tended to hold back from selling.
Harvest-delivered wheat prices in the central handling system are back around $3 a tonne, while barley prices are up $6 to $7 a tonne.
Production of wheat and barley from Western Australia also appears patchy. Recent rain has been valuable, but crops are running out of moisture.
According to agronomists, unless good rain arrives in the next two weeks to overcome the warmer weather, yield potential will be lost.
The forward prices in the Kwinana reflect this uncertain outlook.
In the past month trader bids for barley rose $6 a tonne and wheat prices, $16 a tonne.
International influences are mixed.
Wheat futures in Chicago were down $4.15 a tonne last week under the impact of a bearish US Department of Agriculture update of expanding global wheat stocks, but Paris futures saw little change.
Traders report that cash markets from the cheapest sellers of the Black Sea have changed little as rainfall is needed to establish new crop production in the region.
The same US report lowered forecast yields for corn and soyabeans. This, combined with news of potential corn losses in China by a typhoon, led to a $5.80 a tonne rise in US corn futures.
Both Chicago soybean and Winnipeg canola futures rallied $14 a tonne last week.
New-crop canola prices based on the port zones of Melbourne and Port Kembla remain firm at $592 a tonne delivered port.
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