Outlook best in 20 years

Rainfall offers windfall for growers to meet increased new crop demand and fill Indian shortfall in pulses.

High confidence: This week’s prices are the highest lentils have achieved since May 2016.

SOME surprising rain in Victoria and South Australia has further boosted what some refer to as one of the best starts to a season in 20 years.

Up to 43mm fell in the Don­ald and Charlton area, bringing the monthly total to more than 100mm — more than four times the monthly average.

With further rain expected to start today, many regional centres will record April rainfall well above the average.

The early start to the season has seen substantial activity with many canola and vetch paddocks in the Mallee already sown.

Given this focus and with most markets falling, traders are reporting little activity in new-crop cereal grain markets.

Plummeting crude oil markets are weighing on oilseed and corn markets but falls in new-crop canola have been relatively modest slipping $5 a tonne to $662 a tonne delivered to Victorian ports.

Demand for pulses is improving as wet weather began to hit major growing regions in India in late March.

Further rain in northern Indian states in the middle of this month have exacerbated this throwing more doubt on the overall production of the rabi harvest.

Rain, hail and a prolonged harvest due to shortages of labour and machinery are expected to increase harvest losses in these regions in India.

Traders believe Indian pulse production is switching from one of surplus to one of deficit with the potential for some modest imports but reduction of the stringent trade restrictions are yet to be confirmed.

The largest impact for Australian growers will be for increased new-crop demand.

Chick pea growers of southern Queensland have seen new-crop chick pea prices increase from $630 to $680 a tonne delivered to Darling Downs packers.

Confidence in pulse markets is also seen with traders now posting new-crop prices of $535 a tonne delivered Melbourne for faba beans.

As lentils are a key commodity in the Indian market, lentil prices have increased.

Since the middle of March, nugget lentils have increased from $670 to $815 a tonne delivered to export grain packers in Melbourne.

This is being taken as a selling opportunity for lentil growers, many who have stored lentils since the 2016-17 season.

In this season, lentils were selling for $1200 a tonne delivered Melbourne at sowing yet only achieved $650 to $750 a tonne the following harvest.

This week’s prices are the highest lentils have achieved since May 2016.