Crop forecasts: Australian wheat production soars
National wheat production estimates are booming, with one forecaster lifting volumes more than one million tonnes on last month.
NATIONAL wheat volumes are expected to boom to levels not seen in about four years, as one forecaster ramps up its production estimates.
Financial services network StoneX has lifted its January wheat production estimates by more than one million tonnes on last month, and anticipates national wheat production to soar to 32.96 million tonnes.
This is above the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics’ December estimates of 31.11 million tonnes and above the StoneX December survey of 31.05 million tonnes.
During the bumper harvest in 2016-17, wheat volumes reached about 34 million tonnes.
For NSW, growers have had a knockout season, with StoneX expecting wheat volumes to hit 12-16 million tonnes.
“We are probably looking at the higher end of that,” StoneX senior dealer Nick Orssich said.
Mr Orssich said growers planted as much as they could this year, which had resulted in “monster yields”.
In Victoria, wheat volumes are predicted to reach 4.84 million tonnes, according to StoneX, up from the ABARES December predictions of 4.72 million tonnes.
For Western Australia, Mr Orssich said wheat yield expectations had nudged higher, with forecasts previously at eight million tonnes, now reaching about nine million tonnes.
South Australia is expected to produce 4.89 million tonnes and Queensland predictions are at about one million tonnes.
“National volumes should push to the right hand side of 33 million tonnes,” Mr Orssich said. “It will all come down to the NSW crop.”
Meanwhile, for national barley volumes, StoneX January forecasts are at 12.99 million tonnes, up from ABARES’ December estimate of 11.92 million tonnes. And national canola production is estimated at 4.05 million tonnes, up on the ABARES December estimate of 3.70 million tonnes. It is also an increase on StoneX’s December survey of 3.63 million tonnes.
Victoria Farmers Federation grains president Ashley Fraser said it had been an “exceptional” harvest across Victoria. Mr Fraser said the ABARES December predictions of a nine million-tonne winter crop for Victoria would be 20-30 per cent up on last season’s yields.
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