Canola boost: Big yields anticipated for Victoria
With above average rain on the east coast last month, canola yield expectations are looking bright. Here’s what volumes are predicted to reach.
VICTORIAN canola production is looking bright this season with output expected to be up 50 per cent on the state’s five-year average, thanks to favourable weather conditions.
According to Australian Oilseed Federation’s recent canola crop report, La Niña brought above-average rain for the east coast last month.
The report showed October estimates for Victoria’s canola production are at 855,000 tonnes. This compares with final production volumes in 2019-20 of 699,000 tonnes.
An increase in area sown to canola due to the hefty Chinese tariffs on barley had also supported increased production, the report stated.
“The Victorian canola crop has continued to do well, with good soil moisture able to comfortably carry the crops through the drier mid-season,” AOF said.
“As with NSW, many growers took advantage of soil moisture levels pre-season and elected to plant early.”
After good rain in the Mallee, yields there are expected to hit about 1.9 tonnes/ha.
Meanwhile, for NSW, AOF said heavy rain and storms might tarnish yield prospects.
“The impact of the October storms and heavy rain throughout much of the state, is yet to be established, but some crops already windrowed are too wet to harvest and seeds may sprout before drying out,” AOF said.
And harvest is expected to be delayed in some areas as paddocks are too wet.
Estimated average yields in NSW are still expected to be 1.8 tonnes/ha, which AOF said was the best since that state’s 2012-13 season.
“The favourable conditions have encouraged growers to be generous with nitrogen application, which will certainly boost yields, but may pull back oil content in favour of protein,” the report said.
Crop development is also mostly ahead of where it is expected at this time, due to both early sowing and the above-average winter temperatures, the report showed.
On prices, Profarmer Australia analyst Claudia Kirby said canola 2020-21 rates in Victoria had stayed within the $590 a tonne to $605 a tonne range since the start of October.
“Recent weakness in offshore futures in the last week has seen values drop back to the $590 a tonne mark,” she said.
But harvest selling was also likely to contribute to downward price pressure in the coming weeks as harvest progressed, Ms Kirby said.
“Canola prices are still at historically high decile levels and we will likely see strong grower selling off the header,” she said.
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