AEGIC modelling predicts below-average winter cropping season

A LOOMING El Niño weather pattern could have a devastating impact on Victoria’s cropping regions.

Joe Kane & brother Matt. growing Crops & Hay. near Barraport north of Boort. Scout Wheat They will beguin harvest in about a week. this crop on lighter country has done ok

A LOOMING El Niño weather pattern could have a devastating impact on Victoria’s cropping regions.

A report released yesterday by the Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre shows if an El Niño develops then only 15 per cent of Victoria’s cropping regions will have more than 50 per cent chance of achieving average wheat yields.

It is AEGIC’s first yield forecast for the year.

The modelling shows if an El Niño eventuates about 85 per cent of the Victorian crop regions it monitors have less than 50 per cent chance of reaching average wheat yields.

Just over half of these ­regions have only a 10 to 30 per cent chance of harvesting ­average production.

The modelling uses 98 years of data and compares past El Niño year’s with current rainfall data.

However, it’s a much better story if average rainfall is ­received for the rest of the year, with 29 out of 52 regions predicted to have a 50 per cent chance of making average yields.

AEGIC meteorologist David Stephens said soil moisture levels across Victoria told a mixed story, with reasonable soil moisture in western and southern parts of Victoria and near Mildura.

“But in the central and northern areas soil moisture values are below average and mainly because the subsoil is quite dry,” he said.

Victorian Government agronomist Dale Boyd, who monitors a network of soil moisture probes across the state, said there had been little change in deep soil moisture levels at most sites in the past month, but levels were lower than at the same time last year.

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“Top soil moisture levels are also indicating generally on the drier side (but) no one is going backwards,” he said.

“Some areas are in the position where they are charged up and the next substantial rain will not only bring up the crop but also start to deposit a bit of moisture down into the profile.”

Mr Boyd said probes at Hamilton and Lake Bolac in the southwest and Werrimul in the northern Mallee were among the few sites to show some positive change.

Bureau of Meteorology data shows across large parts of central and western Victoria the rainfall deficit for the past nine months, compared with average, was 75mm to 150mm.

In parts of the Wimmera and central Victoria the deficit was up to 300mm.

BOM climatologist Kevin Smith said rainfall deciles in the Wimmera and Mallee were below average for the autumn, compounding the effect of the dry spring last year.

He said there had been patchy rain across Victoria with some areas getting good falls while others missed out.

Indications were the looming El Niño would be a strong one. “It seems to be much stronger than what we’ve had before and that doesn’t help with what we’re seeing in the west of the state,” he said.