ABARES: Winter crop production to lift 53 per cent
Above average rainfall forecasts in July and favourable soil moisture levels this month should boost winter cropping yields up a massive 53 per cent.
A PERFECT mix of ideal weather conditions during sowing and a bright rainfall outlook for winter is expected to almost double Australia’s grain production volumes this season.
Yields should soar to about 44 million tonnes in 2020-21, lifting about 53 per cent from last season’s volumes of 29 million tonnes, this month’s Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics crop report found.
The abundant crop is also 11 per cent above the 10-year average to 2019-20.
“Yield prospects in NSW, Victoria and South Australia are forecast to be above average given favourable levels of subsoil moisture at the beginning of June and the likelihood of above average rainfall in July,” ABARES acting director Peter Gooday said.
For barley, production is predicted to climb 17 per cent to 10.6 million tonnes. That is 16 per cent above the 10-year average to 2019-20.
According to Mr Gooday, falls in barley prices in early May during planting did not significantly change planting intentions in the eastern states.
“Many producers maintained planned crop rotations,” he said.
Canola yields are expected to increase 40 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes, but that is 1 per cent below the 10-year average.
Meanwhile wheat production is in for a significant turnaround, rising 76 per cent to 26.7 million tonnes.
That is 13 per cent above the 10-year average to 2019–20.
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report also boosted Australia’s wheat expectations by two million tonnes compared with last month, with it similarly predicting wheat to hit 26 million tonnes.
Globally, WASDE lifted world wheat stocks to 5.7 million tonnes, on a 4.9 million tonne production increase and higher beginning stocks.
Global exports are expected to rise 900,000 tonnes to 188.9 million tonnes, led by Australia’s increase.
But the report indicated exports were down 1.5 million tonnes for Ukraine and 500,000 for the European Union “both on smaller crops”.
According to the WASDE, Australia’s coarse grain production is forecast to reach 13.66 million tonnes, compared with 12.71 million tonnes last month.
But Australia’s barley exports are lowered, due to an estimated reduction in imports for China on the back of the country implementing 80 per cent tariffs.
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