Australian agriculture may fall short of $100 billion goal by 2030

Australian agriculture may fall short of its ambitious $100 billion goal by 2030, an update on the industry’s progress shows. We look at how much ag may miss out on its goal by and the reasons why.

Value of agricultural production and exports.

AUSTRALIAN agriculture is inching toward its $100 billion goal, with production value tipped to hit new heights in the face of one the nation’s most challenging years on record.

But trade tensions, labour shortages and biosecurity challenges could see the industry fall short of its ambitious 2030 target.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences has predicted farmgate production will reach $65 billion for 2020-21 – a massive jump from last year’s $59 billion forecast.

It’s welcome news for the National Farmers’ Federation, which will today release its annual update on progress toward the industry’s plans to hit $100 billion by 2030.

However, the report card will show the sector was on track to fall $16 billion short of the 2030 goal.

NFF chief executive Tony Mahar cited trade and labour issues as the biggest hurdles at present.

“We genuinely believe we can reach $100 billion – we always knew it was going to be challenging but this year has proved we can continue in the face of adversity,” Mr Mahar said.

“We can work through them and keep our eye on the prize.”

ABARES executive director Steve Hatfield-Dodds said this season’s forecast was indicative of Australian agriculture rebounding from the impact of drought.

“We’re expecting a near all-time high winter crop, the best ever in NSW, and a more favourable outlook for summer cropping than we have seen in recent years,” Dr Hatfield-Dodds said.

“Livestock prices have also stayed high, with herd and flock rebuilding, and continued international demand.”

But a looming storm for agriculture lies in global trade volatility in the new year, with Australian agricultural exports forecast to drop 7 per cent to just $44.7 billion.

That decline is largely attributed to reduced wine trade with China, and labour shortage in the horticulture sector.

Mr Mahar said maintaining and developing export markets would be crucial if agriculture was to build its value.

“Given how export orientated we are … we need to keep that as a priority,” he said.

Mr Mahar hoped reduced fees for agriculture courses would also attract more people to the sector, particularly after coronavirus shutdowns showed just how important the sector was.

“Things like panic-buying were an eye-opener for people to see how finely-tuned the supply chain is,” he said.

Cutting costs on areas such as energy and transport would also be crucial to meeting the 2030 goal, he said.

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