Australian agriculture in 2024: What countries to look out for in new year

Consumer confidence in China, the American race for the White House and an Indian election could all affect Aussie farmers next year.

Prediction is difficult, Mark Twain once humorously opined, “particularly when it involves the future”.

He’s not wrong. So predicting Australian agriculture 2024 is a mug’s game on December 21, 2023 — but here are some global factors to watch out for in the new year.

China's President Xi Jinping. Picture: Nhac Nguyen

CHINA

Australian plonk is once again stocked in the People’s Republic. Problem is, the people aren’t buying it. Chinese president Xi Jinping had a much-anticipated meeting with Australian PM Anthony Albanese, somewhat defrosting relations that had become as snap frozen as exported Tasmanian salmon.

The value of Australian wine exports has fallen by more than 40 per cent in just three years, from a peak of A$3.1 billion in the year to November 2020, to A$1.79 billion for the 12 month period up to November 2023.

Rural Bank analyst Sean Hickey said the Chinese economy hadn’t recovered completely from its post-covid slump, and it was impacting consumer confidence.

“Consumption across the board in China isn’t as strong as it was in 2018 or 2019. Even though the relationship is improving, sales for Australian ag won’t bounce back quickly.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Picture: Saeed Khan-Pool

INDIA

In April 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN population estimates, the most significant shift in global demographics since the 1950s.

The following month, Indian PM Narendra Modi visited Australia, cementing a trade relationship that could prove lucrative for both Commonwealth countries in the coming years.

In 2024, Modi is up for re-election and more tariffs on Australian goods are set to ease as part of multi-year trade negotiations.

National Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said India promised to be a growing market for Australian goods, allowing the sector to move on from the era of Chinese dominance.

“The past few years have proven we can’t put all our eggs in the one basket,” he said. “India is a promising market for us, although there’s plenty more work to do in opening things up.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (R) gives a speech to present his program to lawmakers at the Polish parliament. Picture: Wojtek Radwanski

EUROPEAN UNION

Brussels flexed their muscles in 2023 during free trade talks with Australia. Federal Trade Minister Don Farrell and his Eurocrat counterparts engaged in what francophones would call ‘le combat’ over beef quotas and geographic indicators.

Will 2024 see some sort of deal brokered between Canberra and Brussels?

EU parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 2024 and the all-powerful agricultural lobby is unlikely to give much ground.

Global Dairy Farmers Ad van Velde was recently in Australia and told The Weekly Times that a deal is hard to foresee from the vantage point of 2023.

“That’s not to say it won’t happen,” he said. “But there is a lot to be negotiated.”

Donald Trump (L) and Joe Biden during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. Picture: Morry Gash and Jim Watson

UNITED STATES

Americans will go to the polls in November 2024 and at this stage, it appears to be a rematch between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump.

But the democratic wrestle for the White House is never predictable.

Both the President and his predecessor are well past retirement age, so a new face may well enter the race on either side.

Whichever side wins, agricultural protectionism will remain the order of the day out of Washington DC.

For Australian agriculture, a flood of American cheese into our supermarkets and restaurants will continue into the new year.

American dairy farmers need to off-load their surplus stock and recent revelations of a $100 million processing site in suburban Melbourne shows the trend is here to stay.