ABARES: Australian farming output tipped for record $90b

Record winter crops in three Australian states have propelled Australian farming into record territory.

Australian farmers are tipped to smash records once again with the annual production of agricultural goods forecast to eclipse $90 billion.

Despite warnings of a downturn, the gross value of farmed goods in 2022-23 is due to surpass last financial year’s record by $2 billion following record winter crop harvests in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences says.

Records are on track to be broken for wheat production, with a $15 billion crop forecast, as well as barley ($4.7 billion) and sorghum ($1.1 billion) while canola is tipped to reach last year’s record of $6.1 billion.

National Farmers’ Federation chief executive Tony Mahar said the result was a testament to high-quality, sustainable Australian food.

“This confirms yet again what we’ve been saying for years: that farming is a sustainable growth engine for Australia. We’ve added over $30 billion in output in the past five years, making farming one of the most exciting growth stories in an economy that’s littered with challenges,” Mr Mahar said.

ABARES director Jarred Greenville said better than expected winter cropping seasons across much of the nation and sustained high international prices for those crops had pushed forecasts into record territory.

“Since November 2021 we’ve been shipping at least $5 billion worth of exports every month, and between August and December in 2022 it jumped to $7 billion worth of exports every month; it’s really high numbers,” Dr Greenville said.

Records are on track to be broken for wheat production, with a $15 billion crop forecast.

The value of agricultural exports is set to reach $75 billion – the first time annual exports have risen above $70 billion – due to large grain and oilseed harvests. Record volumes of wheat, barley, canola, cotton and sorghum are all expected to be exported in 2022-23, fetching high global commodity prices.

But whether the sector can continue its run of records is in doubt, as three consecutive years of La Nina weather patterns are forecast to make way for drier conditions, putting a cloud over the industry’s elusive goal of production worth $100 billion by 2030.

“There’s no reason why we can’t hit $100 billion, but if we go back to drier conditions it will be a little bit harder and that’s where finding premium markets and competing without trading barriers or not getting penalised by trading partners will get us to $100 billion,” Dr Greenville said.

Agriculture Minister Murray Watt described the forecast as a “win for our farmers”, but said the sector was not without its challenges.

“But we have a unique opportunity to focus on these challenges as a government and work with farmers and industry toward better management of future uncertainties,” Minister Watt said.

The value of wine produced is forecast to be down 32 per cent to $749 million, with red wine grape prices likely to remain low and wine exports to fall in step with low prices and production.

But horticultural production on the whole is forecast to climb to a new record of $16.3 billion in 2022-23 as fruit and nut production continues to grow and farm labour improves.

According to ABARES’ latest commodity outlook released today that provides an overview for 2022-23, declining livestock prices are likely to see the value of beef and veal production fall 10 per cent to $14.4 billion and continue falling to $14 billion next financial year due to declining pasture growth conditions.

Falling saleyard prices from historically high prices are also predicted to see the gross value of the nation’s sheep meat sector fall to $4.4 billion, down from $5 billion in the previous 12-month period.

Dairy is on track for a stellar year, with the gross value of milk production forecast to rise 20 per cent to $5.8 billion.

The value of wool production is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent to $3.2 billion.