Trump has survived many scandals, but the Epstein story poses a new test

Nearly two weeks after US President Donald Trump and his administration announced they had nothing more to say about Jeffrey Epstein’s criminal case, the topic continues to dog him, presenting a potential new political liability at the six-month mark of his presidency as Trump tries to sell more Americans on his accomplishments.

The uproar around Epstein escalated last Thursday with a report in The Wall Street Journal that refocused attention on Trump’s relationship with the disgraced late financier. It’s the latest scandal to touch a public figure who has weathered many of them, both in and out of office, yet managed to return to Washington after his 2020 defeat with even more power than before.

US President Donald Trump greets supporters during a dinner for Republican senators in the White House last week.Credit: AP

Despite the clamour surrounding Epstein from within the president’s political base and beyond, there is no indication so far that this is the scandal that will sink Trump any more than the Access Hollywood tape of 2016, or being found guilty in a criminal trial last year over hush money payments to a porn star. Trump won presidential elections after both.

Law enforcement agencies have not accused Trump of any wrongdoing related to Epstein, and he has never been identified as a target of any associated investigation.

But Epstein clearly has posed a problem for the White House. At a minimum, it has been a distraction at a time when Trump wants to tout his legislative victories. If it continues to grab public attention, it could pose a more significant threat at a time when Trump’s standing with the public has already been on the decline, though polling shows him steady with his own party.

Trump lashed out at the Journal’s story after it was published, threatening to sue the newspaper and its owner, Rupert Murdoch, who has been an important, although inconstant, political ally. The next day, he filed a libel lawsuit in federal court in southern Florida, alleging the article defamed him.

Trump’s handling of concerns related to Epstein, the wealthy child sex predator who died in jail in 2019, recently provoked a rare eruption among the president’s most loyal supporters, prompting MAGA leaders to caution that some in Trump’s base could become disillusioned enough to sit out the midterm elections.

Many Americans believe the US government has hidden information on possible associates of Epstein who may also have committed sex crimes against minors. Some have questioned the official ruling that Epstein’s death was a suicide.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday found 60 per cent of Americans think the “government is hiding details about Epstein’s death”, including 55 per cent of Republicans. And 69 per cent said the federal government was hiding details about Epstein’s clients, including 62 per cent of Republicans.

The belief that others took part in Epstein’s abuse of minors was especially prominent among some of the president’s strongest supporters, who believed Trump would expose the corruption upon retaking office. The Justice Department’s announcement this month that there were no more files from Epstein’s case that warranted release caused intense anger among those people and among some MAGA influencers.

At least among prominent MAGA figures, however, the Journal article has triggered a now-familiar reaction – causing Trump’s fractured base to quickly rally around him as a victim. That has quieted much of the recent MAGA frustration.

At least for now.

“This is primarily a within-MAGA problem,” Whit Ayres, a long-time Republican pollster, said of the Epstein situation. “The vast majority of Americans don’t spend every waking moment wondering what happened to Epstein.”

The other group of Americans among whom the Epstein case could pose a problem for Trump, however, are the less-partisan, more disengaged, occasional voters among whom Trump did extremely well during the 2024 campaign. Even before the Epstein case, Trump had been losing ground among such voters.

A characteristic quality of such voters is disaffection with the political system and suspicion that it favours the wealthy and well connected. The Epstein case plays into those voters’ existing feelings and could cause some who have supported Trump to lose faith in him.

Democrats have tried to capitalise on that, seizing on the issue and calling for the Trump administration to release files about the Epstein case.

At least so far, however, not many voters have been closely tuned in to news about the case, although online search traffic has increased sharply in recent days. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted over the past week found that a relatively small share of voters, two in 10, said they were following news about the Epstein files “very closely”.

Top right-wing commentators over the past week issued negative predictions, some dire, about Republicans losing down-ballot seats in next year’s midterm elections. Some long-time MAGA supporters felt betrayed that Trump was not sufficiently going after the so-called “deep state”, they warned, while other newcomers to the movement, including young men who were not previously politically active, would simply be disenchanted and not bother to show up again to the polls.

Former Trump aide Steve Bannon and other prominent right-wing commentators on Friday were still calling for the administration to release more files on Jeffrey Epstein.Credit: AP

By the end of the week, most of those warnings from prominent Trump supporters had quieted, replaced by solidarity behind the president.

Among those recently sounding the alarm was Steve Bannon, Trump’s former adviser who hosts a daily talk show popular with Trump’s MAGA supporters. Bannon and other prominent right-wing commentators on Friday were still calling for the administration to release more files on Epstein, and to appoint a special counsel – which the White House has said Trump will not do. But they directed their chief ire at a familiar enemy: the news media.

This time, it was towards Murdoch, the owner of The Wall Street Journal and a number of other conservative-leaning news outlets, including Fox News. Bannon has long argued that Murdoch, despite his conservative credentials, was out to take down Trump politically.

“MAGA is now united, because they can see there’s a common enemy. They see exactly what the reality is – it’s the deep state, with their media partners, led by Murdoch, that’s out to destroy Trump,” Bannon told The Washington Post, framing the saga as a conspiracy against the president, rather than about the White House’s decision-making on Epstein. “And that’s been obvious from the beginning.”

Prominent conservatives were quick to mock the allegations raised against Trump, posting their own stick-figure drawings of women as a nod to the Journal’s reporting that Trump’s 50th birthday card to Epstein included an apparent hand-drawn outline of a naked woman. Trump allies – and even one recent high-profile enemy, Elon Musk – also quickly dismissed the alleged text included in the card, saying it did not sound like something Trump would write.

Trump and his White House advisers have expressed annoyance for much of the past two weeks at the continued focus on Epstein. Fresh off a July 4 signing of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which the White House has touted as the fulfilment of some of Trump’s campaign promises, the president and his team have wanted to talk about anything else.

“I have had more success in 6 months than perhaps any President in our Country’s history, and all these people want to talk about, with strong prodding by the Fake News and the success-starved Dems, is the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week.

By Thursday night, that aggravation had turned to anger, with Trump vowing to sue Murdoch and the Journal over the reporting on a letter he said was fake.

While Trump and his administration have insisted that the general public is not concerned about Epstein or their review of documents related to him, recent polling shows that voters across the spectrum question his handling of the case.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found 54 per cent of Americans disapproved of how Trump was handling the issue, while just 17 per cent approved. Republicans were split on Trump’s handling of the issue, with 35 per cent approving, 30 per cent disapproving and 35 per cent unsure or not answering the question.

“President Trump is the proud leader of the MAGA movement and currently has record-high support among Republicans,” White House spokeswoman Liz Huston said in a statement, adding that Trump is “quickly delivering” on promises, and describing America as “the hottest country ever as a result”.

White House officials in recent days have repeatedly touted a recent CNN poll that shows Trump’s approval rating notching up slightly among Republicans. The same survey, however, shows just over 60 per cent of all voters opposing Trump’s new spending bill.

“I don’t know that he’s worried about the general electorate at all at this point,” Ayres said, adding that the latest news story about Trump and Epstein seems to help Trump with his base, “because it creates a typical enemy”.

“But it doesn’t resolve the fundamental issue of the Epstein files,” Ayres continued, “and what they will or will not release to the public.”

The Washington Post

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