Re-elected Trump would set up possible clash with Australia on tariffs

Australian leaders are preparing for tough fights over defence deals and trade wars after United States voters put Donald Trump on course to regain the presidency and embark on his sweeping “America First” agenda.

The shift to Trump has triggered concern over the former president’s stated plan to impose costly tariffs on major imports, revisiting plans that threatened Australian jobs in steel and aluminium eight years ago.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told parliament on Wednesday he could work with Donald Trump.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen/AP

While foreign policy experts said Trump was likely to back the AUKUS defence deal and allow the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, there were also concerns that he would expect Australia to fund more of the deal if he takes the White House.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton told parliament on Wednesday that Australia would work with the incoming administration whatever American voters decided, but they spoke before the results suggested Trump would win.

Albanese later issued a statement to congratulate Trump on his victory, saying the Australian government would work closely with the Trump administration.

“Australia and America are old allies, and we are true friends. Our nations are bound by a history of shared sacrifice, a commitment to common values and – above all – enduring respect and affection between our peoples,” he said.

Dutton also congratulated Trump in a statement that emphasised cooperation on industry, the economy and AUKUS.

“The United States has been an overwhelming force for good in the world. When our close ally is strong and at its best, the world is at its best,” he said.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison predicted a Trump victory shortly after 3.30pm on Wednesday AEDT, when many US commentators were still reluctant to call the result, and said Australia had nothing to fear from the outcome.

Morrison said Trump would stand by the AUKUS pact on nuclear-propelled submarines, an alliance Morrison struck with President Joe Biden and former British prime minister Boris Johnson.

Morrison also rejected the argument that a Trump administration would be “scary” for the world because he would be weak on leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

“I’ll tell you who’s scary – Vladimir Putin is scary, Xi Jinping is scary, Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei is scary. Donald Trump is not scary,” he told Sky News.

Morrison said AUKUS was a good deal for the US and Australia, and would be supported by Trump for that reason.

The AUKUS pact assumes Australia will buy the first of three Virginia-class submarines from the US in 2032 and the second in 2035. It says the first vessel in a new design, known as the SSN-AUKUS, will be completed at an Australian shipyard in the early 2040s.

As an interim step, the government assumes US and UK submarines will start operating on rotation from HMAS Stirling, near Perth, from 2027, easing the burden on Australia’s ageing Collins-class vessels.

Australia will also pay $4.7 billion to US companies to help fund the technologies – such as nuclear propulsion – needed for the new fleet.

Former attorney-general George Brandis, who was Australian high commissioner to the UK when the AUKUS pact was struck, said he believed the agreement was not under threat from Trump.

However, he expressed concern that Trump would give a “green light” to dictators if he weakened American support for Ukraine against Putin.

“Australia is in a better position than European allies, but a Trump administration will make the global order less stable,” Brandis said.

America remained an ally for Australia and others, Brandis said, but a less reliable one.

Former diplomat Dennis Richardson, who was ambassador to the US from 2005 to 2010, also said Trump was likely to back the AUKUS alliance.

“Both [former prime minister Malcolm] Turnbull and Morrison worked that relationship hard and did well, so the starting point with Trump is not a bad one,” he said.

“It’ll be important for people to put aside their own views about Trump as a person and separate that out from the way we should approach him and his administration.”

Richardson said the world was heading for a “less certain” time under a Trump administration and raised two concerns – first, that Western democracies would weaken their support for Ukraine against Putin, and second, that US tariffs would set off a trade war.

Turnbull was prime minister when Trump sought to impose sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminium in 2016 to protect American industry, leading Turnbull to negotiate directly with the then-president and successfully gain an exemption for Australia.

The Australian ambassador to the US, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, has also drawn criticism from Trump and some of his supporters in recent months over remarks made several years ago in which Rudd described Trump as “nuts” and a “traitor to the West” because of his stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Coalition foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham signalled on Wednesday morning that the government might have to consider Rudd’s position if he was not able to work with a new administration.

“Obviously, everybody’s aware of what was said in the past that’s been publicised, but Kevin Rudd’s done a good job while he’s been in Washington,” Birmingham told the Nine Network.

“Now, the job is bigger than any one person or Anthony Albanese’s loyalties to any one person, so if he can’t do the job, he can’t get through the door and have the influence we need, then, of course, somebody else should take that on.

“But we wish him nothing but success because we want to see Australia’s best interests protected at all times.”

Morrison made no criticism of Rudd and said he hoped Albanese would listen to the ambassador.

“Kevin’s doing his job, and he’ll keep doing his job, and my hope is that the prime minister will listen to him about how they should best approach this because the tariff policy will present a challenge.

“When there were attempts to put on protectionist tariffs against Australian steel and aluminium, we were able to convince him that that wasn’t the way to go, and that’s what you have to do when you’re the prime minister.”

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