Second hostage swap is a bitter pill for Netanyahu’s failed ambitions

The fragile Gaza ceasefire continues to hold after 15 months of Israeli devastation of the Strip in response to Hamas’s attacks on Israel. That the second exchange of hostages and prisoners has peacefully taken place, bringing the total to seven female Israeli hostages and 290 Palestinian prisoners in the first part of a three-stage agreement, is a remarkable feat.

For the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, the road ahead cannot be anything but very rocky given their unfulfilled objective of wiping out Hamas.

Israeli female soldier hostages wave before being handed over to the Red Cross in Gaza City.Credit: AP

From the start of the crisis, Netanyahu vowed to totally uproot Hamas as a terrorist organisation and free Israeli hostages, and made known his aspirations for Israel to play a key role in determining Gaza’s future.

But in the process of attempting to meet these ends, Israel has been subjected to global condemnation and isolation, allegations of genocidal actions and crimes against humanity. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant, alongside those of senior Hamas figures who are dead.

But of the 251 Israeli citizens kidnapped on October 7, the Israel Defence Forces have managed to rescue only a dozen.

Furthermore, the IDF has not completely uprooted Hamas, as many analysts had predicted. In fact, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated this month that Hamas has probably recruited as many fighters as it has lost in the battles.

The failure on these two fronts has bitterly polarised the Israeli population between those who demanded that their government negotiate with Hamas to free the hostages and end the war and those who found solace in the continuation of the war for political, strategic and expansionist objectives. Netanyahu and the extremists in his cabinet, especially his former national security Itamar Ben-Gvir (who resigned in opposition to the ceasefire) and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, defied any attempt at concluding a ceasefire or peacemaking.

The cost of the war has been substantial to Israel in more ways than one. While hundreds of soldiers were killed and wounded, and many reservists were called up for active duty from the civilian sector, the economy, industrial output, tourism and social and administrative services have also been badly affected. Most Israelis have had to cope with higher inflation and cost of living. Moody’s recently downgraded Israel’s credit rating from A2 to Baa1, the lowest rating ever.

These developments, plus a combined urging from Joe Biden, and now President Donald Trump, ultimately came together to prompt Netanyahu to agree to the first stage of a peace deal. It is surely a bitter pill to swallow.

This humiliation has surely only made Netanyahu more emphatic that he is not finished with Hamas.Credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90

Seeing Hamas fighters coming out of hiding in Gaza in sizeable numbers during the first hostage transfer – all in relatively good health and well presented – was a striking visual reminder, seen across the world, that Netanyahu’s ambitions have not been realised.

Among those released in the second hostage transfer were Karina Ariev and Daniella Gilboa, who were both stationed at the Nahal Oz military base on the border with Gaza before being taken hostage. According to Ariev’s sister, Karina had observed suspicious military movement and raised concerns for three months before the terrorist attack, while Gilboa’s mother said her daughter had seen people she believed were Hamas militants on the border preparing for what she believed was an attack in the lead-up to October 7, for which Lieutenant General Herzi Galevi has taken responsibility for and resigned over.

While no doubt psychologically affected, the women appeared to be in good physical health as they appeared onstage, waving, smiling and posing for photos during their release.

This humiliation has surely only made Netanyahu more emphatic that he is not finished with Hamas, stating that the current ceasefire is “temporary” and that he has the full backing of Trump to resume fighting when deemed necessary. Since the start of the ceasefire, the IDF has launched a major security operation in the West Bank, already killing and wounding dozens and arresting hundreds of Palestinians in the process.

There is no enforcement mechanism for the ceasefire that could prevent him from refusing to negotiate its second stage, which requires Hamas to free all remaining hostages – dead and alive – in return for the Israeli release of more Palestinian prisoners, along with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all of Gaza.

The only factor that could possibly stop further military action would be Hamas’s retention of remaining hostages after the first stage, and Trump rescinding his offer of unlimited support, though he has said that it is Israel’s war and Gaza is a “phenomenal location” with good weather, implying that it could make a beautiful piece of real estate.

Until then, though, Netanyahu must face his people and the reality of his declarations not coming to fruition.

Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University, adjunct professor of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia, and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University.