Europe has been blindsided by Trump on Ukraine. Wasn’t it listening?

Berlin: When it comes to US President Donald Trump and Ukraine, Europe seemingly spent too much time hoping for the best and not enough planning for the worst.

Over the past 72 chaotic hours, the White House announced peace talks solely with Russia, brought Kyiv to the table, waged a culture war on Europe, ruled out NATO admission and proposed the United States get a 50 per cent share in Ukraine’s critical minerals. And that was almost immediately rejected by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky.

And now it appears Trump’s National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will this week begin peace talks with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia. Europe is unlikely to play a role, but who knows what tomorrow will bring?

It’s becoming clear that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky can no longer rely on US assistance. Donald Trump wants a deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and wants it fast.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

The confused messages from Trump’s administration have caught leaders flat-footed – as if they hadn’t been paying attention during the past 12 months. Now, with heads spinning, French President Emmanuel Macron is convening European leaders for an emergency summit in Paris on Monday in response to the US talks with Russia.

Appearing to be making things up as they go, US officials have asked European capitals to provide detailed proposals on the weaponry, peacekeeping troops and security arrangements they could provide Ukraine with as part of any security guarantees to end its war with Russia.

There has been much bluster and second-guessing, but one clear thing is that Ukraine can no longer rely on US assistance. Trump wants a deal with Putin and wants it fast.

The other thing that has emerged is that under Trump, the US is no longer happy to be the main guarantor of security in Europe. There are talks of a partial withdrawal of troops and a clear shift of priorities to other continents.

US Vice President J.D. Vance shocked leaders, diplomats and generals with his provocative speech at the Munich Security Conference on Friday (Saturday AEDT), but his message to fear “the enemy within” was hardly new. He has been saying the same things for years.

They had been hoping to extract more clarity on Trump’s plans from discussions with Vance and Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg. Well, it seems they did. They now fear they will have to bear the cost of postwar security and reconstruction as they reel from being cut out of US-Russia peace negotiations on Ukraine.

Trump likes to negotiate from strength, but on Ukraine he sounds like the one who wants a deal more. He plans to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia, and they have invited each other to their respective capitals. No date has been set for Trump’s visit to Moscow.

Some believe there is a strong possibility that a meeting between Putin and Trump will result in an agreement. Putin might demand an election, the occupied territories and Ukrainian neutrality. All these ideas have been teased.

Putin, meanwhile, is continuing to bomb Ukraine’s cities and power plants and take territory in the east – albeit at enormous human cost.

Zelensky said Ukraine would “never accept deals made behind our backs without our involvement”. He called for the creation of an “army of Europe” amid rising concern the US might no longer come to the continent’s aid.

For Britain and the European Union, it means an urgent new plan, but for Ukraine, which is dependent on American support, the change is little short of existential.

“As we fight this war and lay the groundwork for peace and security, we must build the armed forces of Europe so that Europe’s future depends only on Europeans, and decisions about Europe are made in Europe,” Zelensky told the Munich conference.

“Some in Europe may not fully understand what’s happening in Washington right now, but let’s focus on understanding ourselves right here in Europe. We must give strength to Europe first.”

In an interview at the weekend, NATO’s most senior military officer warned that Ukraine “will not be Vladimir Putin’s last target”.

Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the new chair of the alliance’s military committee, said history showed the Russian leader could not be trusted and NATO would “watch him” as Ukraine peace talks developed.

Promises of “peace for our time” from Trump, bought through appeasing an aggressor with the territory of its European victim, will do little to reassure those who believe Russia has bigger plans.

And there can be few doubts that a respite will allow Russia to rebuild its land forces faster to resume fighting sooner – meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and beyond.

Unless Europe is prepared to muscle up, it will be a spectator. Its only choice is to commit more money, troops and a “European” path for Ukraine.

As one diplomat said at the weekend: “Fast deals cost more for the buyer, but the US is not willing to foot the bill.”

Unless Europe steps up, Ukraine will pay the price.

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