Xi’s neighbourly charm offensive touches a raw nerve for Trump

By the time Xi Jinping touched down in Hanoi on Monday afternoon, as part of a five-day charm offensive in South-East Asia, the local press was already amplifying the Chinese president’s message to the region, and also to his US counterpart.

“There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and protectionism leads nowhere,” Xi wrote in a lengthy article published in Nhan Dan, the official newspaper of Vietnam’s Communist Party.

With US President Donald Trump’s tariff sword dangling over South-East Asia, threatening to cripple the region’s trade routes and ravage economies, Xi and Vietnam’s top leader, To Lam, signed dozens of agreements, including deals on supply chains, artificial intelligence and railway co-operation.

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Hanoi on Monday as part of a five-day tour of South-East Asia.Credit: AP

“China’s mega-market is always open to Vietnam, and the country welcomes more high-quality Vietnamese products,” Xi was quoted by state media outlet Xinhua as saying, along with a pitch for the countries to “uphold the global free-trade system”.

It’s a message Xi will carry to his other two stops, Malaysia and Cambodia, later this week, and it will echo throughout the region.

At the White House, it was met with irritation, with Trump accusing Xi and Lam of “trying to figure out, ‘how do we screw the United States of America?’ ”

Xi’s tour will also be closely watched by Australian diplomats. Moves by China to bolster its alliances in the region, whether through trade or other measures, are part of a broader influence-strengthening agenda that will trigger unease in Canberra – particularly at a time when America is signalling its disinterest in regional co-operation and a retreat from its decades-long role as the upholder of the liberal democratic world order.

However, China’s overtures will not be uncritically embraced in South-East Asia, especially in Vietnam and Malaysia, says Lye Liang Fook, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“These countries will be cautious. They want to have agency, so they don’t want to jump onto the China bandwagon,” Lye says.

The three-state visit – Xi’s first overseas trip this year – had been planned before Trump’s April 2 tariff barrage, presumably by canny Beijing officials who sniffed the wind and realised the time was ripe for a neighbourhood tour.

Xi Jinping (right) with Vietnamese leader To Lam.Credit: AP

While Xi was in Vietnam less than 18 months ago, it has been nine years since he last ventured to Cambodia and 12 since he was hosted by Malaysia.

Outside of China, which faces a 145 per cent duty on its US-bound goods, Vietnam and Cambodia were threatened with the next highest tariffs by Trump – 46 per cent and 49 per cent respectively. Malaysia is poised to cop 24 per cent, unless it can secure a deal in the 90-day reprieve that Trump suddenly announced last week for all countries except China.

South-East Asia is accustomed to being wedged in the Venn diagram of US v China rivalry, and countries – rather than forming a bloc of US resistance – will be leveraging what they can out of the trade feud for their own benefit.

“Each of the South-East Asian countries are, in some sense, also competing with each other,” says Susannah Patton, director of the Lowy Institute’s South-East Asia program.

“Vietnam, in particular, will be wary about being seen as being too close to China because it doesn’t help them in their tariff negotiations with the US if they’re being seen as a back door for Chinese exports.”

The US v China tariff war has also heightened concerns that Beijing will increasingly dump its surplus exports on the region as the US pathway dries up.

“They want Chinese investments that actually value-add to the local economy and not just wipe out the local industries. Vietnam is particularly concerned about cheap and low-tech Chinese products,” Lye says.

Since Trump’s first trade war with China in 2018, Vietnam has exploded with investment, much of it Chinese-backed, to become a manufacturing hub for US-bound goods. Its exports to America accounted for a whopping 30 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product last year.

Vietnam is already chasing a two-way zero-tariff deal with Trump and has pledged to increase American imports. Cambodia, China’s closest ally in the region, has proposed axing tariffs on 19 US product categories from 35 to 5 per cent.

Under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia has tilted closer to Beijing. His ardent pro-Palestine position and criticism of the US’s role in the Gaza war have further strained ties with Washington.

But Anwar, too, holds cards. Malaysia shipped $US16.2 billion ($25.5 billion) of chips to the US in 2024, amounting to almost one-fifth of America’s semiconductor imports, giving it some bargaining power.

The stakes are high. And the geopolitics are complex. Malaysia and Vietnam also have conflicting territorial claims with China – and each other – in the fractious South China Sea, where the US, Australia and other allies have been objecting to Beijing’s aggression.

Beijing is seizing the moment to cosy up to its neighbours, projecting the image of a reliable trading partner and agent of stability at a time of US-led chaos. Excessive American belligerence in any deal negotiations could drive them closer together, undermining decades of Australia-US efforts to maintain a delicate strategic balance and peace in the region.

Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.