One code to rule them – why soccer may be the last survivor in world footy

Rugby union in Australia is “the canary in the coal mine of world sport” – signalling a trend whereby soccer will eventually be the sole football code in the world – according to John Wylie, a former chair of the Australian Sports Commission and the MCG Trust.

As we look to a new year, Wylie has peered deeper into the 21st century, convinced that soccer will prevail, whether it takes 50 years or even a century for NFL and college football in America and AFL in Australia to become niche sports.

Wylie, an investment banker interested in the intersection of sport and business, returned from the Rugby World Cup in France convinced there was an inevitability of “the beautiful game” becoming a solely global and dominant one.

“Australia is the only country in the world with four football codes – Aussie rules, rugby union and league and soccer,” he said, adding that it was “generally agreed that rugby union currently sits fourth”.

That assessment is based on the Wallabies’ results and the gradual decline in playing numbers at the grassroots. New Zealand, a country with a fifth of Australia’s population, continues to argue Australia doesn’t have enough elite players or funding to support five Super Rugby franchises. The sport in this country is shown mainly on pay TV and is under siege from AFL and NRL for elite talent.

Wallabies teammates console each other after losing to Wales at the World Cup.Credit: AP

“Rugby union in Australia is the canary in the coal mine of world sport,” Wylie said. “Soccer is the dominant code in most countries around the world. Rugby union is the No.1 sport in only New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa and possibly Wales, with NFL and the college gridiron game eclipsing soccer in the US. Rugby league is the No.1 sport only in PNG.

“TV dollars are flowing to the top sports globally and soccer, or football as it is called in most countries, will only get stronger.”

Wylie’s thesis would probably anticipate rugby league following rugby union as the next of the football codes to die in Australia.

While rugby league is the No.2 code in Australia, sitting behind AFL, it is a distant third in England and possibly New Zealand and a niche sport in France.

Nathan Cleary powers past Reece Walsh towards the try line in the NRL grand final.Credit: Getty

However, at least rugby league is played internationally and is entrenching itself in the Pacific Islands, unlike Aussie rules, which is played exclusively in the country of its birth.

As the world shrinks in terms of distances and broadcasting, the AFL is at a significant disadvantage. A FIFA World Cup can energise an entire nation, as we saw with the Matildas.

Still, unlike rugby league and rugby union, AFL is a truly national code and its revenue from broadcasting, gate takings and sponsorships eclipses the other codes.

Soccer’s current disadvantage in Australia is as a “bottom up” sport, insofar as it is expensive to play at the grassroots level, with the base of the playing pyramid supporting the apex. It costs about $800 to play, and $3000 if selected in a representative youth team.

The moment the Matildas won their FIFA Women’s World Cup quarter-final against France in a penalty shoot-out.Credit: Getty

Compare this with the AFL, which funds a national network of Auskick via its lucrative TV deal and also rugby league with its network of licensed clubs providing funds for the game to be played inexpensively at school-age level.

However, the record-breaking TV ratings for the Matildas during the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, together with improved results for the Socceroos, should signal future, richer broadcasting deals, meaning the peak body will be in a better position to fund grassroots.

Soccer has the added advantage of being safer to play. Concussion, or “battle brain”, together with increasing publicity of former players suffering CTE, will hasten the death knell of the combat codes.

Some NRL coaches privately fear the debate over concussion, leading to parents withdrawing their children from the sport at a time funding from the peak body is focused at the top of the playing pyramid, may see the code die at the professional level before they do.

The Lions claimed their second AFLW flag in 2023.Credit: Getty

The two rugby codes have taken steps to minimise head injuries, while AFL has been slower to act. The AFL allows contact from behind to be entrenched legally in its rules, meaning a player is required to have “eyes in the back of their head”.

Yet soccer merely has to ban headers, except in the box, or penalty area, to make the game safer without significantly affecting the way it is played.

With lawyers gathering evidence from past players on the impact of concussion on their lives, the administrators of AFL and the two rugby codes will be forced to draw up their inevitable plans of diverting money to the legal profession.

The NFL has been another canary in a coal mine in this respect, agreeing to a $US765m ($1.12 billion) settlement with 4500 ex-players a decade ago over concussion-related brain injuries.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen scrambles against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.Credit: AP

However, the NFL’s new broadcasting deal, which began this season, reinforces Wylie’s thesis that TV money flows to the top, with the $10 billion-a-year contract doubling the revenue the NFL received from the previous agreement.

So, the NFL could be the last bastion to fall to soccer, as the increasing publicity about head injuries is countered by the booming income from broadcasters.

Soccer purists have long lamented that God did not smile upon the US, gifting it only England’s upper-class diversions of sport, such as golf, tennis and rowing.

They may eventually have their wish, as gridiron fields make minor adjustments to become soccer pitches.

Wylie’s corporate speciality – mergers and acquisitions – supports his thesis on the evolution of global sport. All attempts at cross-code joint ventures to challenge soccer have failed. The easiest merger – rugby union and league – has defied efforts, while Aussie rules and rugby league attempted amalgamations three times last century.

The most bizarre attempt came in August 1933 when a secret trial was splayed at the Royal Agricultural Ground in Sydney. According to the referee, it was “too fast for humans”, despite players running onto the field with copies of the rules in their hands.

Compare that to soccer whose compromises with other sports have been limited to embracing video review technology and whose simple rules have largely been unchanged in the past 100 years.

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