Matildas mania is still going strong. But difficult times are ahead

The streak is over, but the Matildas remain undefeated in the popularity stakes. Their staggering run of consecutive home sell-outs ended at 16, halfway through a four-match window to round out 2024 in which interim boss Tom Sermanni laid down some significant groundwork for whoever is going to take over as permanent coach, whenever that happens to be.

Even though most the team’s biggest overseas-based stars had been compelled to return to their clubs, fans still turned out in big numbers for their two matches against Chinese Taipei (not exactly the biggest drawcard), with a cumulative crowd of 56,892 and cumulative scoreline of 9-1. These were zero-stakes friendlies with no permanent coach in place. There had been premature suggestions that “Matildas mania” is dying down, but these numbers suggest it has staying power.

Many of those newer fans who latched onto the Matildas during last year’s Women’s World Cup, however, do not know the true pain that comes with being a supporter of Australian soccer. Their first taste was the team’s dismal Olympic Games in Paris. There is plenty more heartache ahead.

First, the good news: Sermanni will leave behind an interesting pool of players to his successor. He has done a lot of heavy lifting, firstly by allowing the residual pain from Paris 2024 to wash over this group, and then by blooding a host of new faces who look ready to contribute at international level - in particular, defenders Winonah Heatley and Natasha Prior, who have impressed. Others, like forward Sharn Freier, who debuted under Tony Gustavsson, and veteran Tameka Yallop, a bit-part player under the former coach, seem to have found new levels.

“I haven’t really done anything,” Sermanni said after Saturday night’s 6-0 win over Chinese Taipei in Geelong, typically playing down his contribution.

“The expectations of this team were so high and the pressures were so high. When that happens, and you come off a tournament where things don’t go well, there’s an automatic downer. I think it was just a case of that happening.

The Matildas’ golden generation is on the way out. The 2026 Asian Cup is looking like the last hurrah for many of this generation’s biggest stars.Credit: Getty

“What’s happened since then is that things have stabilised a little bit and the team’s starting to come back to life again.”

Sermanni still doesn’t know when he will be asked by Football Australia to move on. In the meantime, it’s fair to assume that whoever comes next probably won’t be an Aussie. If there was a compelling enough local candidate in FA’s eyes, they surely would have moved for them. Instead, they seem to be holding out for an option from overseas.

That is the opportunity cost of sticking with Gustavsson for as long as they did: the best ones, like Emma Hayes, were snapped up during the European off-season, and there aren’t too many suitable free agents around.

The Matildas won’t play again until February 20 when they face Japan in the opening match of the SheBelieves Cup, in which they’ll also face the United States and Colombia. A squad for that friendly tournament would need to be named a week or two before then, so if someone other than Sermanni is to be picking it, FA’s top brass are in for a fairly busy festive period.

Interim coach Tom Sermanni after Saturday night’s win over Chinese Taipei in Geelong.Credit: Getty Images

Captain Sam Kerr won’t be involved. Her club, Chelsea, revealed at the weekend that she wasn’t expected to be back training with the rest of the group until February or March.

By the time the SheBelieves Cup finishes, it will be 12 months – and, crucially, only five international windows – until the start of the 2026 AFC Women’s Asian Cup, to be hosted by Australia, a tournament that will probably be the last hurrah for many of this team’s household names, including Kerr (who will be 32), Caitlin Foord (31), Steph Catley (32), Emily van Egmond (32), Alanna Kennedy (31), Mackenzie Arnold (32), Katrina Gorry (33) and Hayley Raso (31). Some may not make it that far.

Given the rapid rise of standards across women’s football and Australia’s stasis compared with other nations, it’s increasingly looking like the Asian Cup is the Matildas’ last realistic chance of winning a major trophy for the foreseeable future.

Australia’s FIFA women’s ranking peaked with the historical high of No.4 in the world in December 2017; there has been a steady regression since, even through the prime years of this “golden generation” and today they sit at No.15. They have never been lower than No.16 since FIFA began keeping women’s rankings more than 20 years ago.

The Matildas celebrate Natasha Prior’s goal against Chinese Taipei in Geelong on Saturday night.Credit: Getty Images

Europe is galloping ahead, South America is catching up; Brazil’s two bruising wins in Queensland, with a brash and youthful squad under a new coach, showed how quickly traditional football countries can regenerate their ranks. The same thing, though at an admittedly slower pace, is happening in Asia.

Speaking of which: it used to be that the Women’s Asian Cup doubled as the pathway for World Cup qualification in the AFC. That will soon change, and after Brazil 2027, the Matildas will be exposed to the same sort of arduous, long-haul travel to inhospitable locations as the Socceroos to reach the game’s pinnacle.

Winnable games on paper, in those circumstances, become very difficult in reality – and they won’t be able to lean on the experience of the Kerr, Foord and Catley-era crew, all of whom will be long retired by then.

To fill the void, some of those emerging players Sermanni has found will need to leave the A-League and establish themselves at big European clubs to take the next steps in their development.

And therein lies the monstrous challenge for the Matildas and their new coach, who will have to balance fast-rising expectations with unavoidable realities. They will have to contend for a trophy while rebuilding (and qualifying for the next World Cup) and ideally retaining their status as Australia’s favourite sporting team.

Asked on Saturday night for a message he would give to his successor, Sermanni was only half-joking when he said: “Good luck.”

News, results and expert analysis from the weekend of sport sent every Monday. Sign up for our Sport newsletter.